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Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs

  • Elchanan Ben-Porath

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    The paper analyzes an economy with asymmetric information in which agents trade in contingent assets. The new feature in the model is that each agent may have any prior belief on the states of nature and thus the posterior belief of an agent maybe any probability distribution that is consistent with his private information. We study two solution concepts: Equilibrium, which assumes rationality and market clearing, and common knowledge equilibrium (CKE) which makes the stronger assumption that rationality, market clearing, and the parameters which de?ne the economy are common knowledge. The two main results characterize the set of equilibrium prices and the set of CKE prices in terms of parameters which specify for each state s and event E the amount of money in the hands of agents who know the event E at the state s. The characterizations that are obtained apply to a broad class of preferences which include all preferences that can be represented by the expectation of a state dependent monotone utility function. One implication of these results is a characterization of the information that is revealed in a CKE.

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    File URL: http://ratio.huji.ac.il/sites/default/files/publications/dp462.pdf
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    Paper provided by The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem in its series Discussion Paper Series with number dp462.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:huj:dispap:dp462
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    1. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
    2. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society.
    3. Stephen Morris, . "Justifying Rational Expectations," Penn CARESS Working Papers 9c26245814018c6e9fadb3767, Penn Economics Department.
    4. Jayasri Dutta & Stephen Morris, . "The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs," Penn CARESS Working Papers 269cceedcbd401a5e46548b88, Penn Economics Department.
    5. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2006. "Rationalizable Expectations," Discussion Paper Series dp461, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    6. Kreps, David M., 1977. "A note on "fulfilled expectations" equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-43, February.
    7. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November.
    8. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
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