IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cor/louvco/1995076.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • DUTTA, Jayasri

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge)

  • MORRIS, Stephen

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

At a Rational Expectations Equilibrium (REE), individuals are assumed to know the map from states to prices. This hypothesis has two components, that agents agree (consensus), and that they have point expectations (degeneracy). We consider economies where agents' beliefs are described by a joint distribution on states and prices, and these beliefs are fulfilled at equilibrium. Beliefs are self-fulfilling if every price in the support of the distribution is an equilibrium price. The corresponding equilibria are Beliefs Equilibria (BE). The further restriction that agents have the same beliefs results in Common Beliefs Equilibria (CBE). We study the relationship between BE, CBE, and REE, thus isolating the role of consensus and of degeneracy in achieving rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • DUTTA, Jayasri & MORRIS, Stephen, 1995. "The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs," CORE Discussion Papers 1995076, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1995076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://uclouvain.be/en/research-institutes/immaq/core/dp-1995.html
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Morris, "undated". ""Justifying Rational Expectations''," CARESS Working Papres 95-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    2. Aumann, Robert J, 1987. "Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Allen, Beth E, 1981. "Generic Existence of Completely Revealing Equilibria for Economies with Uncertainty when Prices Convey Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1173-1199, September.
    4. Geanakoplos, John & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1989. "Real indeterminacy with financial assets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 22-38, February.
    5. Ausubel, Lawrence M., 1990. "Partially-revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 93-126, February.
    6. Roy Radner, 1997. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1594, David K. Levine.
    7. Beth Allen & Jayasri Dutta & Haraklis M. Polemarchakis, 1994. "Equilibrium selections," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-494, June.
    9. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1987. "Correlated equilibria and sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 364-373, December.
    10. Polemarchakis, H M & Siconolfi, P, 1993. "Asset Markets and the Information Revealed by Prices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(4), pages 645-661, October.
    11. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    12. Anderson, Robert M. & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1982. "On the existence of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 261-278, April.
    13. James Peck & Karl Shell, 1991. "Market Uncertainty: Correlated and Sunspot Equilibria in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(5), pages 1011-1029.
    14. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    15. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-1278, December.
    16. Jordan, James S. & Radner, Roy, 1982. "Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, April.
    17. Allen, Beth, 1981. "A class of monotone economies in which rational expectations equilibria exist but prices do not reveal all information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 227-232.
    18. Allen, Beth, 1985. "The existence of fully rational expectations approximate equilibria with noisy price observations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 213-253, December.
    19. Adam Brandenburger & Eddie Dekel, 2014. "Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Language of Game Theory Putting Epistemics into the Mathematics of Games, chapter 3, pages 43-57 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. McAllister, Patrick H., 1990. "Rational behavior and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 332-363, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. P. Herings & Kirsten Rohde, 2006. "Time-inconsistent preferences in a general equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(3), pages 591-619, November.
    2. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2008. "Trade and revelation of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 132-164, January.
    3. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
    4. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Hahn, Frank, 1999. "Notes on Sequence Economies, Transaction Costs, and Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 203-218, June.
    5. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2005. "Rationalizable Expectations," Economics Working Papers 0057, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
    6. João Correia-da-Silva, 2015. "Two-period economies with price-contingent deliveries," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(3), pages 509-525, August.
    7. Michael Zierhut, 2016. "Partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium with real assets and binding constraints," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 495-516, August.
    8. Beaudry, Paul & Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2003. "An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 76-103, November.
    9. Elchanan Ben-Porath, 2007. "Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001494, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Ben-Porath, Elchanan & Heifetz, Aviad, 2011. "Common knowledge of rationality and market clearing in economies with asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2608-2626.
    11. Herakles Polemarchakis, 2015. "Markets and Efficiency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 150-166, June.
    12. Heifetz, Aviad & Polemarchakis, Heracles M., 1998. "Partial Revelation with Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 171-181, May.
    13. Krebs, Tom, 2001. "Endogenous probabilities and the information revealed by prices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Jayasri Dutta & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2012. "Comment on "Sovereign Bailouts and Senior Loans"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 292-297 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael Ostrovsky, 2012. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets With Strategic Traders," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2595-2647, November.
    16. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society.
    17. Felipe Zurita, 2001. "Speculation in Financial Markets: A Survey," Documentos de Trabajo 197, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    18. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 1997. "Extrinsic Uncertainty and the Informational Role of Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 154-180, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1995076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alain GILLIS). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/coreebe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.