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Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Strategic Traders


  • Ostrovsky, Michael

    (Stanford University)


This paper studies information aggregation in dynamic markets with a finite number of partially informed strategic traders. It shows that for a broad class of securities, information in such markets always gets aggregated. Trading takes place in a bounded time interval, and in every equilibrium, as time approaches the end of the interval, the market price of a "separable" security converges in probability to its expected value conditional on the traders' pooled information. If the security is "non-separable," then there exists a common prior over the states of the world and an equilibrium such that information does not get aggregated. The class of separable securities includes, among others, Arrow-Debreu securities, whose value is one in one state of the world and zero in all others, and "additive" securities, whose value can be interpreted as the sum of traders' signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Ostrovsky, Michael, 2009. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Strategic Traders," Research Papers 2053, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:2053

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
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    3. Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1997. "The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1247-1282, November.
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    5. Philip J Reny & Motty Perry, 2006. "Toward a Strategic Foundation for Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1231-1269, September.
    6. Mikhail Golosov & Guido Lorenzoni & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Decentralized Trading With Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 1055-1091, May.
    7. Peter DeMarzo & Costis Skiadas, 1999. "On the uniqueness of fully informative rational expectations equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
    8. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
    9. Nielsen, Lars Tyge, et al, 1990. "Common Knowledge of an Aggregate of Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1235-1239, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atakan, Alp Enver & Ekmekci, Mehmet, 2016. "Market Selection and the Information Content of Prices," MPRA Paper 75632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vladimir Asriyan & William Fuchs & Brett Green, 2017. "Information aggregation in dynamic markets with adverse selection," Economics Working Papers 1573, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2017.
    3. Mikhail Golosov & Guido Lorenzoni & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Decentralized Trading With Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 1055-1091, May.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2011. "Opinion Dynamics and Learning in Social Networks," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 3-49, March.
    5. Alp E. Atakan & Mehmet Ekmekci, 2014. "Auctions, Actions, and the Failure of Information Aggregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2014-2048, July.
    6. Vladimir Asriyan, 2017. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Adverse Selection," 2017 Meeting Papers 988, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Dieler, T., 2014. "Essays on asset trading," Other publications TiSEM ea0c811e-e335-402f-a3e2-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2014. "Does one Bayesian make a difference?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 423-452.
    10. Kei Kawakami, 2014. "Excessive Dynamic Trading: Propagation of Belief Shocks in Small Markets," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1188, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Braz Camargo & Kyungmin Kim & Benjamin Lester, 2016. "Information Spillovers, Gains from Trade, and Interventions in Frozen Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(5), pages 1291-1329.
    12. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837,
    13. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
    14. Benjamin Edelman & Michael Schwarz, 2015. "Pricing and Efficiency in the Market for IP Addresses," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, August.
    15. Lambert, Nicolas & Ostrovsky, Michael & Panov, Mikhail, 2014. "Strategic Trading in Informationally Complex Environments," Research Papers 3021, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    16. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:4:p:9-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Boco, Hervé & Germain, Laurent & Rousseau, Fabrice, 2016. "Heterogeneous noisy beliefs and dynamic competition in financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 347-363.
    18. Linardi, Sera, 2017. "Accounting for noise in the microfoundations of information aggregation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 334-353.
    19. Joachim R. Groeger, 2016. "The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets," Papers 1609.03471,
    20. Fabrice Rousseau & Hervé Boco & Laurent Germain, 2015. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Imperfect Competition in Sequential Auction Markets," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n258-15.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    21. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.

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