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Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets With Strategic Traders

  • Michael Ostrovsky

This paper studies information aggregation in dynamic markets with a finite number of partially informed strategic traders. It shows that for a broad class of securities, information in such markets always gets aggregated. Trading takes place in a bounded time interval, and in every equilibrium, as time approaches the end of the interval, the market price of a "separable" security converges in probability to its expected value conditional on the traders' pooled information. If the security is "non-separable," then there exists a common prior over the states of the world and an equilibrium such that information does not get aggregated. The class of separable securities includes, among others, Arrow-Debreu securities, whose value is one in one state of the world and zero in all others, and "additive" securities, whose value can be interpreted as the sum of traders' signals.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3982/ECTA8479
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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 2595-2647

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:80:y:2012:i:6:p:2595-2647
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  1. DUTTA, Jayasri & MORRIS, Stephen, 1995. "The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs," CORE Discussion Papers 1995076, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
  3. Philip J Reny & Motty Perry, 2006. "Toward a Strategic Foundation for Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1231-1269, 09.
  4. Nielsen, Lars Tyge, et al, 1990. "Common Knowledge of an Aggregate of Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1235-39, September.
  5. Wilson, Robert, 1977. "A Bidding Model of Perfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 511-18, October.
  6. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski & Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Decentralized trading with private information," 2008 Meeting Papers 391, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
  8. Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1997. "The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1247-1282, November.
  9. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 1982. "Revelation of Information in Strategic Market Games: A Critique of Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 634R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 1985.
  10. Peter DeMarzo & Costis Skiadas, 1999. "On the uniqueness of fully informative rational expectations equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
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