IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/810.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographics, monetary policy and the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Bielecki

    (University of Warsaw and Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Marcin Kolasa

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

The recent literature shows that demographic trends may affect the natural rate of interest (NRI), which is one of the key parameters affecting stabilization policies implemented by central banks. However, little is known about the quantitative impact of these processes on monetary policy, especially in the European context, despite persistently low fertility rates and an ongoing increase in longevity in many euro area economies. In this paper we develop a New Keynesian life-cycle model, and use it to assess the importance of population ageing for monetary policy. The model is fitted to euro area data and successfully matches the age profiles of consumption-savings decisions made by European households. It implies that demographic trends have contributed significantly to the decline in the NRI, lowering it by 2 percentage points between 1980 and 2030. Despite being spread over a long time, the impact of ageing on the NRI may lead to a sizable and persistent deflationary bias if the monetary authority fails to account for this slow moving process in real time. We also show that, with the current level of the inflation target, demographic trends have already exacerbated the risk of hitting the lower bound (ZLB) and that the pressure is expected to continue. Delays in updating the NRI estimates by the central bank elevate the ZLB risk even further.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Bielecki & Marcin Kolasa & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2018. "Demographics, monetary policy and the zero lower bound," 2018 Meeting Papers 810, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:810
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2018/paper_810.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    2. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2007. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 552-565, August.
    3. Tom D. Holden, 2023. "Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions to Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1481-1499, November.
    4. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    5. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    7. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    8. Patrick A. Imam, 2015. "Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 138-154, March.
    9. Holden, Tom D., 2016. "Computation of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 144569, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. George William Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.
    11. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    12. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 31-54, February.
    13. Fabio Milani, 2011. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, May.
    14. Arlene Wong, 2016. "Population aging and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption," 2016 Meeting Papers 716, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    16. Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Ciccarelli & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Sestito, 2019. "Demography and Productivity in the Italian Manufacturing Industry: Yesterday and Today," CEIS Research Paper 457, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 16 May 2019.
    2. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "Inequality, the risk of secular stagnation and the increase in household deb," Working Paper Research 375, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Frank Smets, 2021. "Comment expliquer la faiblesse durable des taux directeurs dans la zone euro ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 47-60.
    4. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2022. "Intergenerational Redistributive Effects of Monetary Policy [Price-Level Changes and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth Across the Euro Area]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 549-580.
    5. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2022. "Aging, Migration and Monetary Policy in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-30.
    7. Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: macroeconomics at a dead end," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 97-122.
    8. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
    9. Tomas Reichenbachas & Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2021. "Natural real rates of interest across Euro area countries: Are R-stars getting closer together?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. Kimberly A. Berg & Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2021. "Demographics and Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1229-1266, September.
    11. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Aneta Błażejowska & Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2024. "Estimates and Projections of the Natural Rate of Interest for Poland and the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-32.
    12. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    14. Fadejeva, Ludmila & Kantur, Zeynep, 2023. "Wealth distribution and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Patrik Kupkovic, 2020. "R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    16. Alberto Locarno & Alessandra Locarno, 2021. "Is inflation targeting a strategy past its sell-by date?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1316, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Papetti, Andrea, 2020. "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective," Working Paper Series 2382, European Central Bank.
    18. Gilles Dufrénot & Mathilde Esposito & Eva Moreno-Galbis, 2024. "Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan," AMSE Working Papers 2426, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    19. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    20. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2022. "Aging, Migration and Monetary Policy in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-30.
    2. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Enrique Sentana, 2018. "The rise and fall of the natural interest rate," Working Papers 1822, Banco de España.
    5. Sandra Daudignon & Oreste Tristani, 2022. "Monetary policy and the drifting natural rate of interest," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1057, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.
    7. Piotr Żoch, 2020. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Rules in a Model with Collateral Constraints," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 43-69.
    8. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 627-650.
    9. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    11. David Cook & Michael B Devereux, 2019. "Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 43-82, December.
    12. Giuseppe Ferrero & Marco Gross & Stefano Neri, 2019. "On secular stagnation and low interest rates: Demography matters," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 262-278, December.
    13. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2024. "Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2019. "Unconventional Policies in State-Contingent Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 257107351, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Haavio, Markus & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2021. "Monetary policy rules and the effective lower bound in the Euro area," Research Discussion Papers 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    16. Shifu Jiang, 2022. "Optimal Credit, Monetary, and Fiscal Policy under Occasional Financial Frictions and the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 151-197, March.
    17. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2016. "Bayesian estimation and entropy for economic dynamic stochastic models: An exploration of overconsumption," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 143-157.
    18. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
    19. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    20. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.