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Is there a bubble in the art market?

Author

Listed:
  • Kräussl, Roman
  • Lehnert, Thorsten
  • Martelin, Nicolas

Abstract

The record-breaking prices observed in the art market over the last three years raise the question of whether we are experiencing a speculative bubble. Given the difficulty to determine the fundamental value of artworks, we apply a right-tailed unit root test with forward recursive regressions (SADF test) to detect explosive behaviors directly in the time series of four different art market segments ("Impressionist and Modern", "Post-war and Contemporary", "American", and "Latin American") for the period from 1970 to 2013. We identify two historical speculative bubbles and find an explosive movement in today's "Post-war and Contemporary" and "American" fine art market segments.

Suggested Citation

  • Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Martelin, Nicolas, 2014. "Is there a bubble in the art market?," CFS Working Paper Series 493, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:493
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    Cited by:

    1. Spaenjers, Christophe & Goetzmann, William N. & Mamonova, Elena, 2015. "The economics of aesthetics and record prices for art since 1701," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 79-94.
    2. Xin Li & Chi-Wei Su & Meng Qin & Fahai Zhao, 2020. "Testing for Bubbles in the Chinese Art Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440199, January.
    3. Toan Ho Manh & Thu Trang Vuong & Manh Tung Ho & Hong Kong Nguyen-To & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2018. "The painting can be fake, but not the feeling’: an overview of the Vietnamese market through the lens of fake, forgery and copy paintings," Working Papers CEB 18-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Francesco Angelini & Massimiliano Castellani, 2019. "Cultural and economic value: a critical review," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 43(2), pages 173-188, June.
    5. Kruse, Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik & Wegener, Christoph, 2018. "Bias-corrected estimation for speculative bubbles in stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 354-364.
    6. Garay, Urbi, 2021. "Determinants of art prices and performance by movements: Long-run evidence from an emerging market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 413-426.
    7. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Sari, Emre, 2018. "Dynamics of the Turkish paintings market: A comprehensive empirical study," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 180-194.
    8. Penasse, J.N.G. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Bubbles and Trading Frenzies : Evidence from the Art Market," Other publications TiSEM bf0d8984-df7f-4f02-afc7-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2020. "Testing for explosive bubbles in the presence of autocorrelated innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 207-225.
    10. Christos Floros & Georgios Galyfianakis, 2020. "Bubbles in Crude Oil and Commodity Energy Index: New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(24), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Goodness C. Aye & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Rangan Gupta & Mark Wohar, 2016. "Testing the Efficiency of the Art Market using Quantile-Based Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," Working Papers 201625, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Ewing Bradley T. & Thornton Mark & Yanochik Mark, 2017. "Investment in New Proved Oil Reserves: An Austrian Perspective," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 12(s1), pages 1-9, July.
    13. Kräussl, Roman & Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta, 2016. "The winner's curse on art markets," CFS Working Paper Series 564, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2021. "Measuring alternative asset prices in an emerging market: The case of the South African art market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    16. Assaf, Ata & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Demir, Ender & Kumar Mitra, Subrata, 2021. "Market efficiency in the art markets using a combination of long memory, fractal dimension, and approximate entropy measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Assaf, Ata, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in the art markets: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 340-355.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Art market; Alternative investments; Speculative bubbles; Explosive behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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