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Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini
[Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]

Author

Listed:
  • Eryilmaz, Unal

Abstract

The central bank, whose main objective of monetary policies is to control inflation, can intervene in total expenditures on goods and services in the economy by affecting the growth rate of money and credit supply. In this study, it is aimed to examine the ex-post prediction of the real M2 series, an aggregate of money supply, which is both an intermediate target and an information variable for the Central Bank, and also the relationship between Real M2 and Industrial Production. In this framework, various prediction models were formed with time series analysis and the results obtained from these models were discussed. Para politikalarının temel amacı enflasyonu kontrol etmek olan merkez bankası, para ve kredi arzının büyüme oranını etkileyerek, ekonomideki mal ve hizmetlere yapılan toplam harcamalara müdahale edebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Merkez Bankası açısından hem bir ara hedef hem de bir bilgi değişkeni olan para arzı toplamlarından reel M2 serisinin ex-post öngörüsü ve ayrıca Reel M2 ile Sanayi Üretimi arasındaki ilişkini incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, zaman serisi analizi ile bazı öngörü modelleri oluşturularak söz konusu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlar tartışılmıştır.

Suggested Citation

  • Eryilmaz, Unal, 2021. "Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini [Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]," MPRA Paper 111685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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