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Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Author

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  • Chih‐Hsiang Chang
  • Kam C. Chan
  • Hung‐Gay Fung

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long‐term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks after filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People's Bank of China's policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih‐Hsiang Chang & Kam C. Chan & Hung‐Gay Fung, 2009. "Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 35-44, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:17:y:2009:i:2:p:35-44
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01140.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
    2. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    3. repec:cto:journl:v:20:y:2000:i:2:p:223-235 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Yuanquan Chen, 2008. "Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 63-82, September.
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    2. Antonio Focacci & Angelo Focacci, 2024. "A Re-Appraisal of the Role of Monetary Policy: The Quantity Theory of Money through a Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Eryilmaz, Unal, 2021. "Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini [Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]," MPRA Paper 111685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Antonio Focacci & Angelo Focacci & Alessandro Faenza, 2024. "The lens of the quantity theory of money to disentangle the perceived relationship between money growth and inflation: a PSVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 571-595, September.

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