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Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?


  • Georgios Karras



Economic theory suggests that an economy's openness to international trade reduces the ability of monetary policy to affect output. Using quarterly data from the 1960:1–1993:4 period for a set of eight countries (Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Africa, the U.K., and the U.S.A.), this article's empirical results support this theoretical prediction: the more open the economy, the smaller the output effects of a given change in the money supply. This finding, robust across all the different specifications and estimation methods examined, has straightforward implications for stabilization policy. Moreover, it suggests that an economy's net benefit from joining a monetary union is increasing with the economy's openness to foreign trade. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Karras, 2001. "Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 61-73, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:12:y:2001:i:1:p:61-73
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1026559010374

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1981. "Monetary Policy and Foreign Price Disturbances under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Stochastic Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 156-176, May.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    4. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    6. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekpo, Akpan H. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2017. "Openness and the Effects of Monetary Policy in Africa," MPRA Paper 80847, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    openness; monetary policy; monetary union;


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