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A Note on Differential Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply and Policy Rate Shocks in India

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Listed author(s):
  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar

Abstract

The paper attempts to analyse the asymmetric effects of money supply and policy rate shocks in India using quarterly data from 1996-97Q1 to 2011-12Q4. It finds that both the shocks impact real output growth and inflation in the short-run, but have a differential impact among components of aggregate demand. An unanticipated hike/cut in policy rate has a symmetric impact of reducing/increasing GDP growth arising due to a corresponding symmetric impact on investment growth only. In contrast, an unanticipated increase/decrease in money supply has an asymmetric impact– only an unanticipated increase in money supply increases private consumption growth and GDP growth, while there is no impact on the other components aggregate demand. An unanticipated hike/reduction in policy rate leads to a symmetric decline/rise in inflation. An unanticipated change in money supply leads to higher inflation, but a similar decrease in it has no significant impact on inflation.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53058.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53058
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Keywords: Monetary Policy; Asymmetry; Inflation; Policy Rate;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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  1. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
  2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
  3. Aleem, Abdul, 2010. "Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 186-197, April.
  4. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
  5. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Jain, Rajeev, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box," MPRA Paper 50903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam, 2013. "Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in India: How Effective and Long Is the Lag?," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 26-49, January.
  7. Anna Florio, 2005. "Asymmetric monetary policy: empirical evidence for Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 751-764.
  8. Rhee, Wooheon & Rich, Robert W., 1995. "Inflation and the asymmetric effects of money on output fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 683-702.
  9. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
  10. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-278, May.
  11. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
  12. Daniel Tsiddon, 1993. "The (Mis)Behaviour of the Aggregate Price Level," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 889-902.
  13. Phil Bodman, "undated". "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  14. Kapur, Muneesh & Behera, Harendra, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model," MPRA Paper 70631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in India? Evidence from a Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Working Papers 201202, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  16. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2010. "A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India," IMF Working Papers 10/183, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Shen, Chung-Hua, 2000. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? The Case of Taiwan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-218, March.
  18. Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar & Dang, Vinh & Kutan, Ali M., 2011. "Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2418-2428, September.
  19. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
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