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Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis

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  • Paloviita, Maritta
  • Kinnunen, Helvi

Abstract

Using real time data from the OECD and fiscal policy reaction functions, this study explores euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Both iscretionary plans for the budget year and policy changes during budget implementation stages are investigated. The main focus is on the fiscal adjustment to the recent financial and economic crisis. The results suggest that during the monetary union (EMU) euro area planned fiscal policies have been long-term oriented and countercyclical. In the implementation stages new policy decisions have been made as a response to unexpected economics developments. We provide evidence that the crisis had a clear impact on discretionary policies. Due to the increased uncertainty, the crisis emphasized the impact of cyclical developments on fiscal planning. In the implementation stages, huge forecast errors made in budget planning were observed. As a consequence, new decisions were made in order to alleviate negative impacts of the crisis on the euro area economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Paloviita, Maritta & Kinnunen, Helvi, 2011. "Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2011, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2011_021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leinonen, Harry, 2011. "Debit card interchange fees generally lead to cash-promoting cross-subsidisation," Research Discussion Papers 3/2011, Bank of Finland.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta & Kinnunen, Helvi, 2011. "Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis," Research Discussion Papers 21/2011, Bank of Finland.
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    9. Patrick M. Crowley & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2014. "The Great Moderation Under the Microscope: Decomposition of Macroeconomic Cycles in US and UK Aggregate Demand," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Marco Gallegati & Willi Semmler (ed.), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, edition 127, pages 47-71, Springer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2012, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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