IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v34y2010i2p179-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adaptive learning with a unit root: An application to the current account

Author

Listed:
  • Davies, Ronald B.
  • Shea, Paul

Abstract

This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under adaptive learning, however, the model's unit root is eliminated and international debt is either a stationary or an explosive process, depending on agents' specific learning algorithm. Some stationary learning algorithms result in debt following an AR(1) process with an autoregressive coefficient less than 0.8. Because unit roots are a common and problematic feature of many international business cycle models, our results offer a new approach for generating stationarity.

Suggested Citation

  • Davies, Ronald B. & Shea, Paul, 2010. "Adaptive learning with a unit root: An application to the current account," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 179-190, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:179-190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(09)00158-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    3. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    5. Kenneth Kasa, 2004. "Learning, Large Deviations, And Recurrent Currency Crises," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 141-173, February.
    6. Cho, In-Koo & Kasa, Kenneth, 2008. "Learning Dynamics And Endogenous Currency Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 257-285, April.
    7. Marc-Andre Letendre, 2000. "Linear Approximation Methods and International Real Business Cycles with Incomplete Asset Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1539, Econometric Society.
    8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998. "Stochastic gradient learning in the cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 333-337, December.
    9. Dotsey, Michael & Mao, Ching Sheng, 1992. "How well do linear approximation methods work? : The production tax case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 25-58, February.
    10. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1969. "Optimal Policies and Immiserizing Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 967-970, December.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    12. Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1997. "Least mean squares learning in self-referential linear stochastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 313-317, December.
    13. Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya & T. N. Srinivasan, 1998. "Lectures on International Trade, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522470, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account International debt movements Expectations Adaptive learning;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:179-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.