Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account
This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under adaptive learning however, international debt behaves like either a stationary or an explosive process. Whether debt converges or diverges depends on the specific learning algorithm that agents employ. When debt diverges, a financial crisis eventually occurs to ensure that the modelÂ’s transversality condition holds. Such a financial crisis causes an abrupt decrease in the debtor countryÂ’s consumption and utility.
|Date of creation:||10 Apr 2003|
|Date of revision:||10 Jun 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285|
Phone: (541) 346-8845
Fax: (541) 346-1243
Web page: http://economics.uoregon.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce Preston, 2005.
"Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
- Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marc-Andre Letendre, 2000. "Linear Approximation Methods and International Real Business Cycles with Incomplete Asset Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1539, Econometric Society.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
- Dotsey, Michael & Mao, Ching Sheng, 1992. "How well do linear approximation methods work? : The production tax case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 25-58, February.
- Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya & T. N. Srinivasan, 1998. "Lectures on International Trade, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522470, September.
- Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991.
"Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
- Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003.
"Closing small open economy models,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1969. "Optimal Policies and Immiserizing Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 967-970, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, September.
- Kenneth Kasa, 2004.
"Learning, Large Deviations, And Recurrent Currency Crises,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 141-173, 02.
- Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Learning, large deviations, and recurrent currency crises," Working Paper Series 2000-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cho, In-Koo & Kasa, Kenneth, 2008.
"Learning Dynamics And Endogenous Currency Crises,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 257-285, April.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998.
"Stochastic gradient learning in the cobweb model,"
Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 333-337, December.
- Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1997. "Least mean squares learning in self-referential linear stochastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 313-317, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2006-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Harbaugh)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.