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Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account

  • Ronald B. Davies


    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Paul Shea


    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under adaptive learning however, international debt behaves like either a stationary or an explosive process. Whether debt converges or diverges depends on the specific learning algorithm that agents employ. When debt diverges, a financial crisis eventually occurs to ensure that the modelÂ’s transversality condition holds. Such a financial crisis causes an abrupt decrease in the debtor countryÂ’s consumption and utility.

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Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2006-15.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2003
Date of revision: 10 Jun 2003
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2006-15
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  1. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
  2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  3. Cho, In-Koo & Kasa, Kenneth, 2008. "Learning Dynamics And Endogenous Currency Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 257-285, April.
  4. Dotsey, Michael & Mao, Ching Sheng, 1992. "How well do linear approximation methods work? : The production tax case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 25-58, February.
  5. Marc-Andre Letendre, 2000. "Linear Approximation Methods and International Real Business Cycles with Incomplete Asset Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1539, Econometric Society.
  6. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Learning, large deviations, and recurrent currency crises," Working Paper Series 2000-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
  8. Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1997. "Least mean squares learning in self-referential linear stochastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 313-317, December.
  9. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998. "Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 438, Department of Economics.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  11. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1969. "Optimal Policies and Immiserizing Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 967-70, December.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  13. Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya & T. N. Srinivasan, 1998. "Lectures on International Trade, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522470, June.
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