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A new stock-price bubble with stochastically deflating trajectories

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  • Benedikt Rotermann
  • Bernd Wilfling

Abstract

We propose a new, rational stock-price bubble that is able to generate recurringly explosive and stochastically deflating trajectories. Our flexible bubble process entails stock-price volatility dynamics that are consistent with real-world data. To demonstrate this, we fit our bubble specification to NASDAQ data and analyse the volatility dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Benedikt Rotermann & Bernd Wilfling, 2018. "A new stock-price bubble with stochastically deflating trajectories," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1091-1096, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:15:p:1091-1096
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1397846
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    2. Rotermann, Benedikt & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "Periodically collapsing Evans bubbles and stock-price volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 383-386.
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    5. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-754, September.
    6. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
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    Cited by:

    1. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 145-172, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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