Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena
We study a cobweb-type commodity market where n firms operate and characterised by a strictly monotone demand and supply. The firms are assumed to differ in a key parameter governing price expectations which we suppose to be adaptive. We characterise the unique steady state of the resulting economic dynamics in terms of stability and we study the impact of the number and diversity of firms: to this end we introduce the notions of structural and behavioural degree of instability which prove to be crucial in determining whether stability or instability prevail. We also consider the case of market merging and establish conditions to have stability (or instability) in the aggregated market in terms of the original (structural and behavioural) degrees of instability. We take up the issue of transitional dynamics and speed of convergence when the system is stable and characterise parametric configurations that maximise the speed of convergence. Motivated by the difficulty to actually observe expectations, whereas it is easier to measure some structural features of a given market, such as the relevant demand and supply price elasticities, we take the perspective of an observer (e.g. a policy maker) whose information set includes the structural but not the behavioural degree of instability. We therefore assume the firms - via the parameter which defines their expectations - are sampled independently from a population described by a given probability distribution. In this case the structural degree of instability determines how the number of potentially different firms affects the probability of ending up with a stable outcome. Analytical results are provided alongside numerical evidence.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via delle Pandette 9 50127 - Firenze - Italy|
Phone: +39 055 2759707
Fax: +39 055 2759913
Web page: http://www.disei.unifi.it/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007.
"Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174.
- Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2003. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Finance 0312001, EconWPA.
- Clotilde Napp & Elyès Jouini, 2007. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00152348, HAL.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004.
"Disagreement about Inflation Expectations,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hung, Hing & Zhu, Peiyuan, 2006. "An analysis of the cobweb model with boundedly rational heterogeneous producers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 750-768, December.
- Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 202-229, October.
- George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Multivariate Models," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-28, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 25 Jan 2005.
- Roger Guesnerie & George W. Evans, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Post-Print halshs-00754056, HAL.
- George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Reiner Franke & Tim Nesemann, 1999. "Two destabilizing strategies may be jointly stabilizing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 111-128, September.
- Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/18, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Working Paper Series 0127, European Central Bank.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Berthold Herrendorf & Akos Valentinyi & Robert Waldmann, 2000. "Ruling Out Multiplicity and Indeterminacy: The Role of Heterogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 295-307.
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
- Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
- George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
- Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
- J. A. Carlson, 1968. "An Invariably Stable Cobweb Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 360-362.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/78 is not listed on IDEAS
- Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-140, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:flo:wpaper:2009-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michele Gori)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.