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Macroeconomic modeling when agents are imperfectly informed

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  • Paul De Grauwe

    (University of Leuven)

Abstract

DSGE-models have become important tools of analysis not only in academia but increasingly in the board rooms of central banks. The success of these models has much to do with the coherence of the intellectual framework it provides. The limitations of these models come from the fact that they make very strong assumptions about the cognitive abilities of agents in understanding the underlying model. In this paper we relax this strong assumption. We develop a stylized DSGEmodel in which individuals use simple rules of thumb (heuristics) to forecast the future inflation and output gap. We compare this model with the rational expectations version of the same underlying model. We find that the dynamics predicted by the heuristic model differs from the rational expectations version in some important respects, in particular in their capacity to produce endogenous economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic modeling when agents are imperfectly informed," Discussion Papers 6_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:6_2008
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    Cited by:

    1. Spahn Peter, 2009. "The New Keynesian Microfoundation of Macroeconomics," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 60(3), pages 181-203, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE-model; imperfect information; heuristics; animal spirits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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