Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models
Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational Expectations and learning. This information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps to determine the forecasting model for inflation that agents use under learning. My results reveal that the predictive power of this model is improved when using both survey data and an admissible learning rule for the formation of inflation expectations.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 427-6250 ext. 3841
Web page: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2002.
"Inflation Dynamics and Subjective Expectations in the United States,"
CSEF Working Papers
78, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 02 Jun 2009.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, 01.
- Adam, Klaus & Padula, Mario, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 0222, European Central Bank.
- Raf Wouters & Sergey Slobodyan, 2009. "Estimating a medium–scale DSGE model with expectations based on small forecasting models," 2009 Meeting Papers 654, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012.
"Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006.
"A simple recursive forecasting model,"
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
- Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process; A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
IMF Working Papers
12/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006.
"Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, 09.
- Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996.
"Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michael Binder & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1997. "GAUSS and Matlab codes for Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterization of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," QM&RBC Codes 73, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Sims, Christopher A, 2002.
"Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
- Christopher Sims, 2001. "Matlab Code for Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," QM&RBC Codes 11, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007.
"Adaptive learning in practice,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2659-2697, August.
- Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou & Eva Carceles-Poveda, 2004. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 271, Society for Computational Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2012-007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Unit)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.