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Jeremy Piger

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Reproducing business cycle features: what for?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-06-29 23:22:00
  2. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How likely is a recession? (And how fast is a forecast?)
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-05-14 18:00:33
    2. How likely is a recession? (And how fast is a forecast?)
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-05-14 18:00:33
    3. Are we in a recession (yet)? : Consulting Chauvet and Piger’s smoothed probabilities
      by ? in FRED blog on 2022-08-08 13:00:00
  3. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How likely is a recession? (And how fast is a forecast?)
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-05-14 18:00:33
    2. How likely is a recession? (And how fast is a forecast?)
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-05-14 18:00:33
    3. Are we in a recession (yet)? : Consulting Chauvet and Piger’s smoothed probabilities
      by ? in FRED blog on 2022-08-08 13:00:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting

Working papers

  1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Contagious Switching," Working Papers 2019-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Feb 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    2. Su, Xianfang & Chen, Meixia, 2024. "Financial connectedness in BRICS: Quantile effects and BRICS SUMMIT impacts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Puneet Vatsa, 2021. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 54-66.

  2. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger & Nicholas Sly, 2012. "Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners," NBER Working Papers 18032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Craig S. Hakkio & Nicholas Sly, 2016. "Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, September.
    2. Yu, Pei & Cai, Zhengfang & Sun, Yongping, 2021. "Does the emissions trading system in developing countries accelerate carbon leakage through OFDI? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Méjean, 2015. "The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 649, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    4. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo.
    5. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    6. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2017. "Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 292-319, May.
    7. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
    8. Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Carter Mix, 2020. "Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement," Borradores de Economia 1149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Jingjing Lyu & Bernd Süssmuth, 2024. "Global Linkages across Sectors and Frequency Bands: A Band Spectral Panel Regression Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10970, CESifo.
    10. Francisco Arizala & Mr. Matthieu Bellon & Ms. Margaux MacDonald, 2019. "Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2019/160, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Sokolov-Mladenović, Svetlana & Milovančević, Milos & Mladenović, Igor, 2017. "Evaluation of trade influence on economic growth rate by computational intelligence approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 358-362.
    12. Nektarios A. Michail & Konstantinos D. Melas & Dimitris Batzilis, 2021. "Container shipping trade and real GDP growth: A panel vector autoregressive approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 304-315.
    13. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    14. Tamás Sebestyén & Zita Iloskics, 2020. "Do economic shocks spread randomly?: A topological study of the global contagion network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Paravee Maneejuk & Woraphon Yamaka, 2021. "The Role of Economic Contagion in the Inward Investment of Emerging Economies: The Dynamic Conditional Copula Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-23, October.
    16. Xueting Liao & Cheng Yu & Lijuan Xie, 2024. "Do Bank Linkages Facilitate Foreign Direct Investment? An Analysis of Global Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    17. Xiaoshi Zhou & Wanglin Ma, 2021. "Does agricultural mechanization reduce vulnerable employment? Evidence from cross-country panel data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 294-303.
    18. Ridwan Karim & Andrey Stoyanov, 2020. "Output volatility, composition of trade, and transmission of economic shocks across countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 626-655, August.
    19. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío, 2015. "How Robust Are SVARs at Measuring Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies?," Working Papers 2015-18, Banco de México.

  3. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2012. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?," Discussion Papers 2012-23, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    2. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Manzoor Ahmad & Zahoor Ul Haq & Javed Iqbal & Shehzad Khan, 2023. "Dating the Business Cycles: Research and Development (R&D) Expenditures and New Knowledge Creation in OECD Economies over the Business Cycles," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 3929-3973, December.
    4. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Andrea Beccarini, 2019. "Testing for the omission of relevant variables and regime-switching misspecification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 775-796, March.
    7. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Farah, Quazi Fidia & Kishan, Ruby P., 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment dynamics: Nonlinearities matter," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

  4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state level data," Working Papers 2012-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    2. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    3. Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023. "FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
    4. Ashton de Silva & Maria Yanotti & Sarah Sinclair & Sveta Angelopoulos, 2023. "Place‐Based Policies and Nowcasting," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 363-370, September.
    5. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    6. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cepni, Oguzhan & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    8. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    9. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    11. Fossati Sebastian, 2016. "Dating US business cycles with macro factors," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 529-547, December.
    12. Ilias Filippou & Christian Garciga & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2024. "Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(08), pages 1-8, April.
    13. Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    14. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
    15. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics," Working Papers 16.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

  5. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 16704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Irfan Ahmad Khan & Mazhar Mughal & Junaid Ahmed & Hongbo Cai, 2017. "Home and Host country determinants of financial investment flows to Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 361-376.
    2. Ohyun Kwon & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Do Sanctions Affect Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9818, CESifo.
    3. Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2024. "A Fresh Assessment of the Depth of the “Euro Effect" on US FDI," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/18, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    4. Mohamed Isse Ibrahim & Zahir Mohamed Omar & Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali3, 2017. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Somalia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 713-720.
    5. Wang, Yuxin & Zhou, Junting & Zhang, Rui, 2025. "Market accessibility, agglomeration, and spatial location of digital enterprises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Ito, Banri, 2020. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and inter-urban gravity," MPRA Paper 103985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andre Jungmittag, 2018. "Service Trade Restrictiveness and Internationalisation of Retail Trade," JRC Research Reports JRC113769, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2018. "Determinants of capital flows to emerging economies - Evidence from Vietnam," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 23-27.
    9. Dailami, Mansoor & Kurlat, Sergio & Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2012. "Bilateral M&A activity from the Global South," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 345-364.
    10. Dr. Nihal Bayraktar, 2015. "Importance of Investment Climates for Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 24-50, June.
    11. Jann Lay & Kerstin Nolte, 2018. "Determinants of foreign land acquisitions in low- and middle-income countries," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 59-86.
    12. Raphael Chiappini & François Viaud, 2021. "Macroeconomic, institutional, and sectoral determinants of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 404-433, August.
    13. Shah, Mumtaz Hussain, 2017. "The Significance of WTO’s Trade Related Investment Measures (TRIMs) Agreement For Inward FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 82009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Zagler, Martin, 2023. "Foreign direct investment, legal uncertainty and corporate income taxation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 19-28.
    15. Wani, Mr. Nassir Ul Haq & Rehman, Mr. Noor, 2017. "Determinants of FDI in Afghanistan: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 81975, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 May 2016.
    16. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2013. "What determines BITs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 107-122.
    17. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, September.
    18. DePaul, Adrienne & Murphy, Frank & Vernon, Mary E., 2025. "Tax havens and reputational costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    19. Ronald B. Davies & Iulia Siedschlag & Zuzanna Studnicka, 2021. "The impact of taxes on the extensive and intensive margins of FDI," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 434-464, April.
    20. Garavito-Acosta, Aarón Levi & Iregui-Bohórquez, Ana María & Ramírez-Giraldo, María Teresa, 2013. "Inversión extranjera directa en Colombia : evolución, indicadores y determinantes por firma," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 3, pages 83-136, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Ronald B. Davies & Helen T. Naughton, 2003. "Cooperation in Environmental Policy: A Spatial Approach," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-18, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 10 Jun 2003.
    22. Ronald B. Davies & Rodolphe Desbordes & Anna Ray, 2015. "Greenfield versus Merger & Acquisition FDI: Same Wine, Different Bottles?," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-01122659, HAL.
    23. Caleb Stroup, 2014. "International Deal Experience and Cross-Border Acquisitions," Working Papers 14-13, Davidson College, Department of Economics.
    24. Tam'as Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2020. "Modeling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model," Papers 2010.14856, arXiv.org.
    25. Jeanne Amar & Jean-François Carpantier & Christelle Lecourt, 2018. "GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds: Why do they Take Control?," AMSE Working Papers 1835, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    26. Kato, Hayato & Okoshi, Hirofumi, 2022. "Economic Integration and Agglomeration of Multinational Production with Transfer Pricing," MPRA Paper 111439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Caroline Jardet & Cristina Jude & Menzie Chinn, 2023. "Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 854-885, August.
    28. Nvuh Njoya Youssouf, 2017. "Robust FDI Determinants in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(5), pages 21-30, September.
    29. Olga Bogach & Ilan Noy, 2012. "Fire-Sale FDI? The Impact of Financial Crisis on Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 201205, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    30. Vincent Vicard & Guillin Amélie, 2021. "Grey ZOnes in Global Finance: the Distorted Geography of Cross Border Investments," Working Papers hal-03101473, HAL.
    31. Selaya, Pablo & Sunesen, Eva Rytter, 2012. "Does Foreign Aid Increase Foreign Direct Investment?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2155-2176.
    32. Pierre-Henri Bono & Quentin David & Rodolphe Desbordes & Loriane Py, 2022. "Metro infrastructure and metropolitan attractiveness," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03969395, HAL.
    33. Judyta Lubacha-Sember & Liwiusz Wojciechowski, 2014. "Uwarunkowania przeplywu polskich bezposrednich inwestycji zagranicznych do krajow Unii Europejskiej. Model grawitacyjny z wykorzystaniem danych panelowych / The determinants of FDI flows from Poland t," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 7, pages 136-149, September.
    34. Juliana Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2016. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 37, Bank of Lithuania.
    35. David A. Wernick & Jerry Haar & Latika Sharma, 2014. "The Impact of Governing Institutions on Foreign Direct Investment Flows: Evidence from African Nations," International Journal of Business Administration, International Journal of Business Administration, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, March.
    36. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2014 : Preserving Stability and Promoting Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 18378, The World Bank Group.
    37. Pierre-Henri Bono & Quentin Max David & Rodolphe Desbordes & Loriane Py, 2022. "Metro infrastructure and metropolitan attractiveness," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/355380, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    38. Maja Nikšić Radić & Daniel Dragičević & Marina Barkiđija Sotošek, 2019. "Causality between Terrorism and FDI in Tourism: Evidence from Panel Data," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, May.
    39. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya & Janz, Nicole & Berntsen, Øyvind Isachsen, 2018. "Human Rights Shaming and FDI: Effects of the UN Human Rights Commission and Council," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 222-237.
    40. Niaz Morshed & Mohammad Razib Hossain, 2022. "Causality analysis of the determinants of FDI in Bangladesh: fresh evidence from VAR, VECM and Granger causality approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    41. Ramírez-Alesón, Marisa & Fleta-Asín, Jorge, 2016. "Is the Importance of Location Factors Different Depending on the Degree of Development of the Country?," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 29-43.
    42. Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2024. "The Linder hypothesis for foreign direct investment revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1901-1928, September.
    43. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2019. "A Bayesian Spatial Autoregressive Logit Model With An Empirical Application to European Regional FDI Flows," WIFO Working Papers 586, WIFO.
    44. Markus Leibrecht & Christian Bellak, 2023. "Investment policy reform as a driver of foreign direct investment: Evidence from China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1035-1053, October.
    45. Gregori, Wildmer & Nardo, Michela, 2019. "The effect of restrictive measures on cross-border investment in the European Union," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2019-15, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    46. Xinpeng Xu & Jan P. Voon & Yan Shang, 2017. "Unbundling institutional determinants of multinational investments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(23), pages 2269-2285, May.
    47. Kristof Dascher, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment into Open and Closed Cities," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(2), pages 191-210, May.
    48. Chang Zhao & Bing Wang, 2021. "Does China’s Low-Carbon Pilot Policy Promote Foreign Direct Investment? An Empirical Study Based on City-Level Panel Data of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.
    49. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2014. "The effects of financial development on foreign direct investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7065, The World Bank.
    50. Khadijah Iddrisu & Joshua Yindenaba Abor & Kannyiri T. Banyen, 2024. "Financial development, globalisation and foreign direct investment nexus: an empirical study from Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 1-31, June.
    51. Castillo-Murciego, Ángela & López Laborda, Julio, 2018. "The effect of Double Taxation Treaties and Territorial Tax Systems on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence for Spain," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    52. Abreo, Carlos & Carrillo, Eduardo & Pédussel Wu, Jennifer, 2023. "Characteristics of Colombian inward foreign direct investment," IPE Working Papers 212/2023, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    53. Pham, Thi Hong Hanh, 2017. "Impacts of globalization on the informal sector: Empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 207-218.
    54. Jiang, Weijie & Yu, Hui & Chen, Qi, 2024. "Surname distance and interregional investments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    55. Aar�n Garavito A. & Ana Mar�a Iregui B. & Mar�a Teresa Ram�rez G., 2012. "Determinantes de la inversi�n extranjera directa en Colombia: Un estudio a nivel de firma," Borradores de Economia 9672, Banco de la Republica.
    56. Le Chang & Jing Li & Kee-Cheok Cheong & Lim-Thye Goh, 2021. "Can Existing Theories Explain China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Belt and Road Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, January.
    57. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea, 2023. "Investing in Friends: The Role of Geopolitical Alignment in FDI Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 18434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Shah, Mumtaz Hussain & Faiz, Mehreen, 2015. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis of SAARC Countries," MPRA Paper 82008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters Through Industrial Linkages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 177-225, May.
    60. Sara Amoroso & Bettina Müller, 2018. "The short-run effects of knowledge intensive greenfield FDI on new domestic entry," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 815-836, June.
    61. Damioli, Giacomo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2021. "Diplomatic relations and cross-border investments in the European Union," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    62. Álvarez, Inmaculada C. & Barbero, Javier & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Zofío, José L., 2018. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for Trade? Institutional Conditions in a Sectoral Trade Framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 72-87.
    63. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects," MPRA Paper 115542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Tobias Zander, 2020. "Does corruption matter for FDI flows in the OECD? A gravity analysis," EIIW Discussion paper disbei280, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    65. Guillouët, Louise & Khandelwal, Amit K. & Macchiavello, Rocco & Malhotra, Madhav & Teachout, Matthieu, 2024. "Language barriers in multinationals and knowledge transfers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122568, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    66. Udemba, Edmund Ntom & Yalçıntaş, Selin, 2021. "Interacting force of foreign direct invest (FDI), natural resource and economic growth in determining environmental performance: A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    67. Ghodsi, Mahdi, 2020. "How do technical barriers to trade affect foreign direct investment? Tariff jumping versus regulation haven hypotheses," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 269-278.
    68. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    69. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    70. Alessandro Barattieri & Ingo Borchert & Aaditya Mattoo, 2016. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions in services: The role of policy and industrial structure," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1470-1501, November.
    71. Konstantinos Dellis, 2018. "Financial development and FDI flows: evidence from advanced economies," Working Papers 254, Bank of Greece.
    72. Rémi Bazillier & Sophie Hatte & Julien Vauday, 2013. "Environmental Responsibility and FDI: Do Firms Relocate Their Irresponsibilities Abroad?," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00960651, HAL.
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    200. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model," Working Papers 2007, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    201. Alessandro Borin & Riccardo Cristadoro, 2014. "Foreign direct investment and multinational firms," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 243, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    203. Akinori TOMOHARA, 2015. "Effectively Opening Labor and Capital Markets: The interplay among foreign direct investment, trade, and immigration," Discussion papers 15079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    217. Marvin Jahn & Paul Stricker, 2022. "FDI, liquidity, and political uncertainty: A global analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 783-823, October.
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    249. Nguyen, Anh T.N. & Haug, Alfred A. & Owen, P. Dorian & Genç, Murat, 2020. "What drives bilateral foreign direct investment among Asian economies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-141.
    250. Vogiatzoglou Klimis, 2018. "Differences in Inward FDI Performance Between the Southern Eurozone and Eastern EU Members: A Panel-Data Analysis Over 2004-2016," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 56(4), pages 519-532, December.
    251. Federico Carril-Caccia & Aitor Garmendia-Lazcano & Asier Minondo, 2022. "The border effect on mergers and acquisitions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1267-1292, March.
    252. Long, Cheryl & Murrell, Peter & Yang, Li, 2019. "Memories of colonial law: The inheritance of human capital and the location of joint ventures in early-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    253. Kui Ming Tiong & Ming Yu Cheng & Chee Keong Choong, 2021. "Investment climate and foreign direct investment in Malaysia: firm‐level evidence," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 108-119, May.
    254. Dinuk Jayasuriya, 2011. "Improvements in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Rankings: Do they translate into greater foreign direct investment inflows?," Development Policy Centre Discussion Papers 1108, Development Policy Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    255. Görg, Holger, 2023. "Drivers and extent of foreign direct investment in Sub-Sahara Africa," KCG Policy Papers 9, Kiel Centre for Globalization (KCG).
    256. Antonio Saravia & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2012. "Intellectual property rights, foreign direct investment and the shadow economy," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 13514, Universidad EAFIT.
    257. Brada, Josef C. & Drabek, Zdenek & Mendez, Jose A. & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2019. "National levels of corruption and foreign direct investment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-49.
    258. Sunghoon Chung, 2012. "Environmental Regulation and the Pattern of Outward FDI: An Empirical Assessment of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Departmental Working Papers 1203, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    259. Friedt, Felix L. & Toner-Rodgers, Aidan, 2022. "Natural disasters, intra-national FDI spillovers, and economic divergence: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    260. Guido Baldi & Jakob Miethe, 2015. "Ausländische Direktinvestitionen und Wirtschaftswachstum," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 71, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    261. Ronald B. Davies, 2018. "From China with Love: The Role of FDI from Third Countries on EU Competition and R&D Activities," Working Papers 201813, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    262. Seungrae Lee, 2016. "Post-production services and optimal integration strategies for the multinational firm," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(4), pages 597-628, November.
    263. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2023. "Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    264. Nina Vujanovic & Bruno Casella & Richard Bolwijn, . "Forecasting global FDI: a panel data approach," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    265. Enoch Kwaw-Nimeson & Ze Tian, 2023. "Institutional Quality, Foreign Direct Investment, and Regional Integration: Empirical Evidence From CEN-SAD," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440221, January.
    266. World Bank, 2013. "Trends and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in South Asia," World Bank Publications - Reports 16522, The World Bank Group.
    267. Junyan Tian, 2023. "Does agricultural official development assistance facilitate foreign direct investment in agriculture: Evidence from 63 developing countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 702-718, September.
    268. Donaubauer, Julian & Neumayer, Eric & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Financial market development in host and source countries and its effects on bilateral FDI," Kiel Working Papers 2029, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    269. Jackie M. L. Chan & Chih‐Sheng Hsieh, 2022. "Cross‐border networks and knowledge spillovers for foreign entry," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1730-1756, October.
    270. Alali, Walid Y. & Ellalee, Haider, 2018. "The Brexit Impact on Inward FDI in the UK," EconStor Preprints 274655, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    271. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2016. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas," OxCarre Working Papers 177, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    272. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev & Sarhad Hamza, 2022. "Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1159-1192, September.
    273. Yeboah, Samuel, 2023. "Navigating Global Markets: The Impact of FDI on Startups' Access to Insights, Networks, and Brand Visibility," MPRA Paper 118434, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2023.
    274. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2023. "A joint spatial econometric model for regional FDI and output growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 87-106, February.
    275. Santosh Kumar Sahu & Prantik Bagchi, 2023. "IFDI, OFDI, and divestment: a global level analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 25(1), pages 72-100, December.
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    278. Yi Qu & Chengang Wang & Yingqi Wei & Lichao Wu & Nan Zheng, 2024. "Does Eco-Innovation of Emerging Market Firms Benefit from Knowledge Spillovers of MNC in a Multi-dimensional Task Environment?," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 527-565, June.
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  6. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2011. "Inflation in the G7: mind the gap(s)?," Working Papers 2011-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Montagnoli & Konstantinos Mouratidis & Kemar Whyte, 2018. "Assessing the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buyers in a Finance-Augmented Macro-Economy," Working Papers 2018003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    2. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    3. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," IAB-Discussion Paper 201723, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    5. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    6. John Tatom, 2014. "Globalization and Inflation: A Swiss Perspective," Studies in Applied Economics 16, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    7. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    8. Garcia, Juan Angel & Gimeno, Ricardo, 2024. "Navigating high inflation: A joint analysis of inflation dynamics and long-term inflation expectations in Latin America," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).

  7. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 34103, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Howard J. Wall, 2023. "Sex and the business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(17), pages 1958-1971, April.
    2. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yannic Stucki, 2022. "Measuring Swiss employment growth: a measurement-error approach," Working Papers 2022-11, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    5. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021. "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers 2021-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  8. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," Working Papers 2010-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    2. Scott W Hegerty, 2015. "Dollar depreciations and monthly local employment in three Midwestern states: Evidence from time-series and cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 291-297.
    3. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    5. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.

  9. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Frédérique Bec & Bouabdallah, O. & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.
    2. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.

  10. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    2. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    3. Roberto Coronado & James Nordlund & Keith R. Phillips, 2011. "Factors behind the convergence of economic performance across U.S. states," Working Papers 1108, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    5. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 521-534, March.
    6. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2021. "Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Presence of Growth Volatility: Multi-Country Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, October.
    7. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Nonfinancial sectors debt and the U.S. great moderation," Research Report 14030-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    9. Garrett, Thomas A. & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Personal-bankruptcy cycles," MPRA Paper 30759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.
    11. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Learning and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    15. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    17. Abdul Rashid & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan, 2013. "Does Energy Consumption Volatility Affect Real GDP Volatility? An Empirical Analysis for the UK," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 384-394.
    18. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries," Working Papers 2007-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Owyang, Michael T. & Rapach, David E. & Wall, Howard J., 2009. "States and the business cycle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 181-194, March.
    20. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    21. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    22. J. Christina Wang, 2006. "Financial innovations, idiosyncratic risk, and the joint evolution of real and financial volatilities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    23. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.
    24. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    25. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    26. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.

  11. Michelle T. Armesto & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Robert O'Neill, 2010. "A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 60, National Centre for Econometric Research.

  12. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    2. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
    4. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    6. Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
    7. Ioannides, Yannis M., 2018. "A DMP model of intercity trade," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 97-111.
    8. Seuk Wai Phoong & Seuk Yen Phoong & Shi Ling Khek, 2022. "Systematic Literature Review With Bibliometric Analysis on Markov Switching Model: Methods and Applications," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    9. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    11. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    13. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    14. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
    15. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    17. Ge, Shuyi, 2023. "A revisit to sovereign risk contagion in eurozone with mutual exciting regime-switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    19. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    20. Sergei S. Shibaev, 2016. "Recession Propagation In Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers And Endogenous Clustering," Working Paper 1369, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    21. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    22. Belitski Maksim, 2011. "Driving Urban Economic Growth – Evidence from Transition Economies," EERC Working Paper Series 11/10e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    23. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang & Anthony Webb, 2008. "Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.

  13. Angela K. Davis & Jeremy M. Piger & Lisa M. Sedor, 2006. "Beyond the numbers: an analysis of optimistic and pessimistic language in earnings press releases," Working Papers 2006-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michelle T. Armesto & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Feldman & Shimon Kogan & Matthew Richardson, 2013. "Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Born, Benjamin, 2010. "Macroprudential policy and central bank communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 8094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sri Ningsih & Iman Harymawan & Nurul Fitriani & Brian Lam, 2021. "Pessimistic Tone in Earnings Announcement and CSR Disclosure: Exploring the Interacting Role of CEO Busyness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Shuyu Zhang & Xuanyu Zhou & Huifeng Pan & Junyi Jia, 2019. "Cryptocurrency, confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1445-1468, March.
    6. Brière, Marie & Huynh, Karen & Laudy, Olav & Pouget, Sébastien, 2023. "What do we Learn from a Machine Understanding: News Content? Stock Market Reaction to News," TSE Working Papers 23-1401, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Balakrishnan, Ramji & Qiu, Xin Ying & Srinivasan, Padmini, 2010. "On the predictive ability of narrative disclosures in annual reports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 789-801, May.
    8. Gehan A. Mousa & Elsayed A. H. Elamir & Khaled Hussainey, 2022. "Using machine learning methods to predict financial performance: Does disclosure tone matter?," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(1), pages 93-112, March.

  14. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t," Working Papers 2012-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2010. "Inflation may be the next dragon to slay," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 4-9.
    5. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    7. Oleg Kitov & Ivan Kitov, 2011. "A win-win monetary policy in Canada," Papers 1103.5994, arXiv.org.
    8. Stracca, Livio & Musso, Alberto & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 811, European Central Bank.
    9. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2008_040, December.
    10. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    11. John Tatom, 2014. "Globalization and Inflation: A Swiss Perspective," Studies in Applied Economics 16, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    12. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    13. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    14. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  15. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change," Working Papers 2004-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  16. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    4. Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
    5. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2025. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    7. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Leland Bybee & Bryan T. Kelly & Asaf Manela & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "The Structure of Economic News," NBER Working Papers 26648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Barigozzi, Matteo & Massacci, Daniele, 2025. "Modelling large dimensional datasets with Markov switching factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    10. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Other publications TiSEM 347a970d-4a05-416f-a351-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    14. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    15. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    16. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    18. Mariam Camarero & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "External imbalances and recoveries," Working Papers 1912, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    19. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Yoon, Bohyun, 2019. "Why has the size effect disappeared?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 256-276.
    20. Kuang-Liang Chang & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2022. "How did the asset markets change after the Global Financial Crisis?," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 12, pages 312-336, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, August.
    22. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    23. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2017. "How to predict financial stress? An assessment of Markov switching models," Working Paper Series 2057, European Central Bank.
    24. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2010. "The Bond Yield Conundrum : Alternative Hypotheses and the State of the Economy," Discussion Paper 2010-121, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    25. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    26. Bart Keijsers & Dick van Dijk, 2022. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-069/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2023.
    27. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    28. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    29. David W. Findlay, 2024. "To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019)," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-63, February.
    30. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    31. Troy Davig, 2008. "Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q IV), pages 5-33.
    32. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus & Tuomas Peltonen, 2016. "Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries," Staff Working Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    33. Usama Ehsan KHAN & Syed Monis JAWED, 2019. "Dynamics of business cycle and long-term economic growth of Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 173-184, Summer.
    34. Serena Ng, 2014. "Viewpoint: Boosting Recessions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-34, February.
    35. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    36. Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 2139, Banco de España.
    37. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Badye Essid & Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2010. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Credit Spreads," 2010 Meeting Papers 1139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2023. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 333-371, April.
    41. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
    42. Xinlong Li & Andrew T. Ching, 2024. "How Does a Firm Adapt in a Changing World? The Case of Prosper Marketplace," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 673-693, May.
    43. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    44. Sanford, Anthony, 2024. "Information content of option prices: Comparing analyst forecasts to option-based forecasts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    45. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions," Working Papers 20-06, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    46. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    47. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    48. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2018. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Working Papers id:12559, eSocialSciences.
    49. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    50. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    51. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    52. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    53. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," CREATES Research Papers 2018-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    54. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    55. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España.
    56. Didenko, Alexander & Demicheva, Svetlana, 2013. "Application of Ensemble Learning for Views Generation in Meucci Portfolio Optimization Framework," MPRA Paper 59348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    58. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Working Papers 22-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    59. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," RCER Working Papers 564, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    60. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    61. Manzoor Ahmad & Zahoor Ul Haq & Javed Iqbal & Shehzad Khan, 2023. "Dating the Business Cycles: Research and Development (R&D) Expenditures and New Knowledge Creation in OECD Economies over the Business Cycles," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 3929-3973, December.
    62. Aaron H. Anglin & Aaron F. McKenny & Jeremy C. Short, 2018. "The Impact of Collective Optimism on New Venture Creation and Growth: A Social Contagion Perspective," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 42(3), pages 390-425, May.
    63. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
    64. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    65. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2021. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Ups and Downs in Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 2119, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    66. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    67. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    68. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
    69. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    70. Bahram Adrangi & Saman Hatamerad & Madhuparna Kolay & Kambiz Raffiee, 2025. "Economic and Policy Uncertainties and Firm Value: The Case of Consumer Durable Goods," Papers 2506.07476, arXiv.org.
    71. Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    72. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Global Weakness Index – reading the economy’s vital signs during the COVID-19 crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 72.
    73. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    74. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District," Working Papers 2005-053, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    76. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    148. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2015. "Overcoming the Forecast Combination Puzzle: Lessons from the Time-Varying Effciency of Phillips Curve Forecasts of U.S. Inflation," Discussion Papers 2015-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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    150. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    151. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces EBC DP 2011-017)," Other publications TiSEM 2cab42f6-c75d-46ef-9801-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  17. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    2. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2014. "The two greatest. Great recession vs. great moderation," Working Papers 1423, Banco de España.
    4. Andrew T. Levin & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson & Tack Yun, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Working Papers 2008-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    6. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España.
    7. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    8. Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco J. Lombardi, 2008. "The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 257-278.
    9. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    10. Viktor Winschel, 2005. "Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality," GE, Growth, Math methods 0507014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    13. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.

  18. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2018. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," European Economy - Discussion Papers 075, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Senyuz, Zeynep, 2009. "Factor Analysis of Permanent and Transitory Dynamics of the U.S. Economy and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 26855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
    5. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    6. Richard G. Anderson & Marcelle Chauvet & Barry E. Jones, 2013. "Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy," Working Papers 2013-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    8. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    11. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    12. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2023. "Trend and cycle decomposition of Markov switching (co)integrated time series," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(5), pages 1381-1406, December.

  19. Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Natalucci, Fabio M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete, 2016. "Measuring the Monetary Policy’s Structural Credibility by the Expected Inflation Determinants: a Kalman Filter Approach for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.
    2. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Post-Print hal-03399287, HAL.
    3. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," NBER Working Papers 14791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "What does South Korean inflation targeting target?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 526-539, December.
    5. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2006. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Under Alternative Fiscal Regimes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 407, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.
    7. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00643340, HAL.
    8. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till, 2015. "Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 6-9.
    10. James Yetman, 2015. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US," BIS Working Papers 523, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Roman Horvath & Jakub Mateju, 2011. "How are Inflation Targets Set?," Working Papers 2011/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    12. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The effect of interest rate and communication shocks on private inflation expectations," Working papers wpaper122, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    13. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Forward guidance and the private forecast disagreement – case of Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 50(4), pages 411-428.
    14. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Craig Hakkio, 2009. "Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts," NBER Working Papers 15424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol? [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008.
    16. Peter Kugler & George Sheldon, 2010. "Unemployment and Monetary Policy in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 185-208, March.
    17. Bogdan IFTIMIE & Simona-Mihaela CHIRU, 2016. "Macroeconomic Performances Under Inflation Targeting. The Case Of Romania," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 193-209.
    18. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 10, pages 131-142, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    19. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    21. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Undershooting of the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 482-492, December.
    22. Toshitaka Sekine & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Activism," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    23. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea," Working Paper Series 1004, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

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  22. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    3. Liu, De-Chih, 2013. "The evolution of excess job reallocation in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 188-206.
    4. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    6. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
    7. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    8. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    9. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    10. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, August.
    12. Cellini, Roberto & Di Caro, Paolo & Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2014. "Regional resilience in Italy: do employment and income tell the same story?," MPRA Paper 59660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
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    16. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    17. Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Short-run dynamics of income disparities and regional cycle synchronization," Working Papers 2011_09, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    18. Yolanda Kodrzycki & Bo Zhao, 2015. "Achieving greater fiscal stability: guidance for the New England states," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 15-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    19. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    21. Cletus C. Coughlin & Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2007. "Spatial Dependence in Models of State Fiscal Policy Convergence," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(3), pages 361-384, May.
    22. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Dick van Dijk & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2005. "A multi-level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 811-827.
    25. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    26. Fok, D. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    27. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
    28. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    29. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    30. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, March.
    31. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    32. Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2009. "Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis," Working Papers 2009-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    33. Garrett, Thomas A. & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Personal-bankruptcy cycles," MPRA Paper 30759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin & Michael Artis, 2011. "What drives regional business cycles? The role of common and spatial components," ERSA conference papers ersa10p317, European Regional Science Association.
    35. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.
    36. Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
    37. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Choi, Sangyup & Jeong, Jaehun & Yoo, Donghoon, 2024. "How to interpret consumer confidence shocks? State-level evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    39. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    40. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    41. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Gelfer, Sacha, 2024. "Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    43. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
    44. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District," Working Papers 2005-053, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    45. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    46. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva, 2016. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    47. Michael Artis & Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2009. "Common and Spatial Drivers in Regional Business Cycles," SERC Discussion Papers 0022, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    48. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2020. "Formal and statistical aspects of estimating Okun's law at a regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1113-1136, August.
    49. Bryan Perry & Kerk L Phillips & David E. Spencer, 2015. "State-Level Variation in the Real Wage Response to Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, May.
    50. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    51. Amore, Mario Daniele, 2015. "Companies learning to innovate in recessions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1574-1583.
    52. Henning, Martin & Enflo, Kerstin & Andersson, Fredrik N.G., 2011. "Trends and cycles in regional economic growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 538-555.
    53. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.
    54. Francis W. Ahking, 2015. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities (With Appendix A)," Working papers 2015-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    55. Chi‐Young Choi & Horag Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2020. "Regional inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from city‐level purchasing power," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 738-774, September.
    56. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    57. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
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    91. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    92. James Morley, 2018. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 338-340, September.
    93. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    94. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
    95. Gross, Marco & Binder, Michael, 2013. "Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 1569, European Central Bank.
    96. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    97. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

  25. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Cited by:

    1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    3. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    6. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    7. Cheng Jiang, 2018. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    9. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder K., 2011. "Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-60, January.
    11. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    12. Fok, D. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    13. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    15. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
    17. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    18. Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2005. "Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 653-674, December.
    19. Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P., 2017. "Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 560-562.
    20. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District," Working Papers 2005-053, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    24. Imed Medhioub, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553.
    25. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    26. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    27. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372, HAL.
    29. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    30. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    31. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.
    32. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    33. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    34. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L volution des Cr dits l habitat en France : une grille d analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
    35. Jamol Bahromov, 2022. "Regime-switching empirical similarity model: a comparison with baseline models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2655-2674, November.
    36. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    37. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
    38. Dias, Maria Helena Ambrosio & Dias, Joilson, 2010. "Measuring the Cyclical Component of a Time Series: a New Proposed Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    39. Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
    40. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    41. Mile Bosnjak, 2017. "Structural Change In Croatian Real Gdp Growth Rates," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 26(1), pages 205-218, june.
    42. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
    43. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2003. "The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Sep), pages 23-38.
    44. Lee, Tsung-Hsien Michael & Chen, Wenjuan, 2015. "Is there an asymmetric impact of housing on output?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-020, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    45. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    46. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    47. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l conomie fran aise," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
    48. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    49. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "MSVARlib: a new Gauss library to estimate multivariate Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Rolando Peláez, 2005. "Dating Business-Cycle turning points," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 127-137, March.
    51. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

  26. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Is Inflation Persistence Inherent in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 344, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Moreno & Agustin Villar, 2010. "Inflation expectations, persistence and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 77-92, Bank for International Settlements.

  27. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," International Finance Discussion Papers 707, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2010. "Decline in the persistence of real exchange rates, but not sufficient for purchasing power parity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 395-411, September.
    2. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
    4. Tatom, John, 2011. "Inflation and asset prices," MPRA Paper 34606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajšek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Liu, Dayu & Xu, Ning & Zhao, Tingting & Song, Yang, 2018. "Identifying the nonlinear correlation between business cycle and monetary policy rule: Evidence from China and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 45-54.
    8. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Michael R. Pakko & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Taxes, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 32, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Hanif, M. Nadim & Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," MPRA Paper 39583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Post-Print hal-03417062, HAL.
    12. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    13. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
    14. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Groth, Andreas & Ghil, Michael & Hallegatte, Stephane & Dumas, Patrice, 2012. "The Role of Oscillatory Modes in U.S. Business Cycles," Economy and Society 127421, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2005. "Inventory investment and output volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 75-86, January.
    17. Mayer, Eric & Scharler, Johann, 2011. "Noisy information, interest rate shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 568-581.
    18. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
    19. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
    20. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2013. "Wages, Exchange Rates, and the Great Inflation Moderation: A Post-Keynesian View," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_759, Levy Economics Institute.
    22. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2005. "Tracking the source of the decline in GDP volatility: an analysis of the automobile industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Keith Sill, 2006. "Macroeconomic volatility and the equity premium," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    24. Benhmad, François, 2013. "Dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and US GDP: A wavelet perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 141-151.
    25. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 183-202.
    26. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, 2010. "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600096, EcoMod.
    28. Yi Wen, 2005. "Durable good inventories and the volatility of production: explaining the less volatile U.S. economy," Working Papers 2005-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    29. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    30. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
    31. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
    32. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
    33. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    34. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Learning and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    36. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
    37. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    38. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
    39. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
    40. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2004.
    41. Sun, Yuying & Han, Ai & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 414-446.
    42. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Post-Print hal-00732535, HAL.
    43. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    44. Alessandra Canepa, & Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Athanasios & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2022. "Forecasting Ination: A GARCH-in-Mean-Level Model with Time Varying Predictability," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202212, University of Turin.
    45. Eo, Yunjong, 2015. "Structural Changes in Inflation Dynamics: Multiple Breaks at Different Dates for Different Parameters," Working Papers 2015-18, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2015.
    46. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    47. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
    48. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2007. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: Cross-section evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 31-42, July.
    49. Timothy Cogley, "undated". "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    50. Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2017. "Does Competition Prevent Industrial Pollution? Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model," MPRA Paper 85177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Wakita, Shigeru, 2004. "Do Structural Breaks exist in Okun’s Law? Evidence from the Lost Decade in Japan," MPRA Paper 87392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 158, Society for Computational Economics.
    53. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2009. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 683-713, October.
    54. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2011. "Conditional Markov chain and its application in economic time series analysis," MPRA Paper 33369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    56. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    57. Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "Ination Dynamics and Time-Varying Persistence: The Importance of the Uncertainty Channel," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202211, University of Turin.
    58. Luca Benati and Paolo Surico, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    59. Koichiro Kamada & Tomohiro Sugo, 2006. "Evaluating Japanese Monetary Policy under the Non-negativity Constraint on Nominal Short-term Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    60. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    61. Jiang, Yu, 2020. "Identification of business cycles and the Great Moderation in the post-war U.S. economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    62. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, June.
    63. Soo-Bin Jeong & Bong-Hwan Kim & Tae-Hwan Kim & Hyung-Ho Moon, 2017. "Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Multiple Breaks In Variance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 345-361, June.
    64. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Sebastian Fossati, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    66. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    67. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Javed Iqbal & Imran Naveed Khan, 2017. "Global Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 21-51.
    68. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.
    69. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    70. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1950, CESifo.
    71. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    72. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2010. "Exact maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary periodic time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2641-2654, November.
    73. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Stochastic Volatility in a Macro-Finance Model of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961-2004," Discussion Papers 07/32, Department of Economics, University of York.
    74. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
    75. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0025, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    76. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    77. Nalan Basturk & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of US Growth using Basic Time Varying Parameter Models and Expectations Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-119/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Sep 2014.
    78. Siem Jan Koopman & Soon Yip Wong, 2006. "Extracting Business Cycles using Semi-parametric Time-varying Spectra with Applications to US Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-105/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    79. Cathy W. S. Chen & Bonny Lee, 2021. "Bayesian inference of multiple structural change models with asymmetric GARCH errors," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1078, September.
    80. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    81. Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Srinivasan, Naveen & Meenagh, David & Sofat, Prakriti, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    82. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2002. "Why Were Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Smaller in the 1990s?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    83. Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "Inflation Persistence And Core Inflation: The Case Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 430-444, September.
    84. Granville, Brigitte & Zeng, Ning, 2019. "Time variation in inflation persistence: New evidence from modelling US inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-39.
    85. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    86. Chang-Jin Kim University of Washington,, ,Jeremy Piger, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 259, Society for Computational Economics.
    87. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    88. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.
    89. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    90. Marwan Chacra & Maral Kichian, 2004. "A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-39, Bank of Canada.
    91. Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Financial Market Integration And World Economic Stabilization Toward Purchasing Power Parity," Working Paper 1138, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    92. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.
    93. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    94. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    95. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
    96. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2016. "What caused the great inflation moderation in the US? A post-Keynesian view," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 475-502, October.
    97. Canepa, Alessandra, 2024. "Inflation dynamics and persistence: The importance of the uncertainty channel," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    98. Alessandra Canepa, & Menelaos G. Karanasos & Alexandros G. Paraskevopoulos,, 2019. "Second Order Time Dependent Inflation Persistence in the United States: a GARCH-in-Mean Model with Time Varying Coefficients," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201911, University of Turin.
    99. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
    100. Donya Rahmani & Damien Fay, 2022. "A state‐dependent linear recurrent formula with application to time series with structural breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 43-63, January.
    101. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2005. "Has the Business Cycle Changed in Japan? A Bayesian Analysis Based on a Markov-Switching Model with Multiple Change-Points," MPRA Paper 93865, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  28. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Has the G7 business cycle become more synchronized ?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 782, Econometric Society.
    2. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Oil and the G7 business cycle : Friedman's Plucking Markov Switching Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 773, Econometric Society.

  29. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1465, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
    2. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    5. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Skare, Marinko & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Porada-Rochon, Małgorzata, 2025. "Isolating financial cycles using the fractional cyclical model in selected economies: 1970–2019," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-77.
    7. Senyuz, Zeynep, 2009. "Factor Analysis of Permanent and Transitory Dynamics of the U.S. Economy and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 26855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    9. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    10. Whelan, Karl, 2006. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 5910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    12. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    13. Xiaoyu Zhang & Fanghui Pan, 2019. "The Dependence of China’s Monetary Policy Rules on Interest Rate Regimes: Empirical Analysis Based on a Pseudo Output Gap," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    14. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    15. Stuart J. Fowler, 2005. "Income Inequality, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 184, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    17. Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    18. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    21. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    22. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, April.
    23. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    24. Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2011. "Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 187-206.
    25. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    26. Mateusz Pipień & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2019. "The heterogeneity of convergence in transition countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 75-105, January.
    27. Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "House prices and business cycles: The case of the UK," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 131-146, June.
    28. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    29. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    30. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    31. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    32. Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Hong Kong's Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 152014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    33. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    34. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    35. Rothman Philip A, 2008. "Reconsideration of the Markov Chain Evidence on Unemployment Rate Asymmetry," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, September.
    36. Li, Wei & Xu, Wei & Zhao, Junfeng & Jin, Yanfei, 2007. "Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 702-711.
    37. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Component structure for nonstationary time series: Application to benchmark oil prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 971-983, December.
    38. Yu-Lieh Huang & Chao-Hsi Huang, 2007. "The persistence of Taiwan's output fluctuations: an empirical study using innovation regime-switching model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2673-2679.
    39. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
    40. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Output fluctuations persistence: Do cyclical shocks matter?," Working Papers 2006_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    41. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    42. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Business cycle dynamics in a small open economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1153-1157.
    43. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    44. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," IMF Working Papers 2005/029, International Monetary Fund.
    45. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    46. Stuart J. Fowler, 2005. "Fiscal Spending Shocks and the Price of Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Working Papers 200502, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    47. Driffill John & Kenc Turalay & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2009. "The Effects of Different Parameterizations of Markov-Switching in a CIR Model of Bond Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
    48. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
    49. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
    50. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

  30. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Markov regime-switching and unit root tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 683, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    2. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
    3. Richard Paap & Herman K. van Dijk, 1999. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to US Consumption and Income," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-024/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi & Paolo Paesani, 2010. "Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 3281, CESifo.
    7. Ekaterini Panopoulou & B. Groom & P. Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1480105, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    8. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    9. Oreste Napolitano, 2009. "Is the impact of the ECB Monetary Policy on EMU stock market returns asymmetric?," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(97), pages 145-180.
    10. Dennis L. Gärtner & Daniel Halbheer, 2008. "Are There Waves in Merger Activity After All?," Working Papers 0092, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
    11. Yarovaya, Larisa & Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2022. "The COVID-19 black swan crisis: Reaction and recovery of various financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2018. "Inflation analysis in the Central American Monetary Council," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 547-565, March.
    13. Kaufmann, Sylvia & Kugler, Peter, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working papers 2005/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    14. Pakrooh, Parisa & Manera, Matteo, 2024. "Causality, Connectedness, and Volatility pass-through among Energy-Metal-Stock-Carbon Markets: New Evidence from the EU," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. Vasco Gabriel & Luis Martins, 2011. "Cointegration tests under multiple regime shifts: An application to the stock price–dividend relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 639-662, December.
    16. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi, 2007. "Markov‐Switching Mean Reversion in Short‐Term Interest Rates: Evidence from East Asian Economies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 383-397, December.
    17. Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes, 2008. "Finite Sample Effects Of Pure Seasonal Mean Shifts On Dickey–Fuller Tests: A Simulation Study," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 528-538, September.
    18. Cavaliere, Giuseppe, 2004. "Testing stationarity under a permanent variance shift," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 403-408, March.
    19. Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    20. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94.
    21. Erica Clower & Hiro Ito, 2012. "The Persistence of Current Account Balances and its Determinants: The Implications for Global Rebalancing," ADBI Working Papers 400, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    22. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Unemployment, Hysterisis and Transition," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 137, Royal Economic Society.
    23. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    24. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    25. Mikael Juselius & Moshe Kim, 2017. "Sustainable Financial Obligations and Crisis Cycles," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, June.
    26. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Long-Run Trends and Cycles in US House Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 10751, CESifo.
    27. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    28. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Nicola Rubino & Inmaculada Vilchez, 2024. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations in the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 231-254, August.
    29. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "The relationship between oil prices and the Nigerian stock market. An analysis based on fractional integration and cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 328-333.
    30. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2018. "Market efficiency of Baltic stock markets: A fractional integration approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 511(C), pages 251-262.
    31. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    32. Tolga Omay & Aysegul Corakci, 2024. "A Unit Root Test with Markov Switching Deterministic Components: A Special Emphasis on Nonlinear Optimization Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1837-1856, September.
    33. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2010. "US external debt sustainability revisited: Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 98-106, March.
    34. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi, 2005. "Is There a Unit Root in East-Asian Short-Term Interest Rates?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    35. Francis W. Ahking, 2004. "Non-Parametric Tests of Real Exchange rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Working papers 2004-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    36. Wahyudi, Imam & Luxianto, Rizky & Iwani, Niken & Sulung, Liyu Adhika Sari, 2008. "Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modified Markov Regime Switching Model," MPRA Paper 59723, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2010.
    37. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    38. RIANE, Nizare, 2014. "Etude de la dynamique non-linéaire des rentabilités de la bourse de Casablanca [Study of the returns nonlinear dynamics of the Casablanca stock exchange]," MPRA Paper 61957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2015.
    39. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Jalalifar, Saba, 2021. "Financing the green projects: Market efficiency and volatility persistence of green versus conventional bonds, and the comparative effects of health and financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    40. Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
    41. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
    42. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 667, European Central Bank.
    43. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2004. "Regime-switching Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis of UK meat consumption," Econometrics 0409007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Emrah Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2013. "Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 675-695, October.
    45. Mikael Juselius & Moshe Kim & Staffan Ringbom, 2015. "Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1119-1147, May.
    46. Roberto Baragona & Francesco Battaglia & Domenico Cucina, 2016. "Empirical Likelihood for Outlier Detection and Estimation in Autoregressive Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 315-336, May.
    47. B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005. "Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests," MPRA Paper 125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.
    48. Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Elayaraja Aruchunan & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2024. "A new fractional integration approach based on neural network nonlinearity with an application to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2471-2499, June.
    49. Davidson, James & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Long memory and nonlinear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 105-112, October.
    50. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 2013. "The links between some European financial factors and the BRICS credit default swap spreads," Post-Print hal-01511898, HAL.
    51. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2007. "Non-linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0710, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    52. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Characterising the South African business cycle: is GDP difference-stationary or trend-stationary in a Markov-switching setup? - Il ciclo economico del Sud Africa: il PIL è stazion ario alle differenz," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(1), pages 33-44.
    53. Aaron D. Smallwood, 2016. "A Monte Carlo Investigation of Unit Root Tests and Long Memory in Detecting Mean Reversion in I(0) Regime Switching, Structural Break, and Nonlinear Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 986-1012, June.
    54. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    55. Carlo Di Giorgio, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 284-300, March.
    56. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Carcel, Hector, 2017. "Shocks affecting electricity prices in Kenya, a fractional integration study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 521-530.
    57. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alfonso Dominguez & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "Testing for Persistence in Real House Prices in 47 Countries from the OECD Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 11662, CESifo.
    58. Mr. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2003/159, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Trilochan Tripathy, 2016. "Long Range Dependence in the Indian Stock Market: Evidence of Fractional Integration, Non-Linearities and Breaks," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 199-215, December.
    60. Khan, Asad Ul Islam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Napari, Ayuba, 2023. "Subsample stability, change detection and dynamics of oil and metal markets: A recursive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    61. Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O’Connor, 2013. "Do bubbles occur in the gold price? An investigation of gold lease rates and Markov Switching models," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(3), pages 53-63, September.
    62. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 919-947, October.
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    1. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2014. "Missing Variation in the Great Moderation: Lack of Signal Error and OLS Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    3. Adam J. Check & Anna K Nolan & Tyler C. Schipper, 2019. "Forecasting GDP Growth using Disaggregated GDP Revisions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2580-2588.
    4. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Robust Approaches to Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 697, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    7. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(6).
    8. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
    9. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2012. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers 8828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2019. "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Working Papers 1903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
    12. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
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    42. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    43. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    44. Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009. "Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 480-491.
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    46. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55, September.
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    48. Daragh Clancy, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation Uncertainty: Extracting the TFP Cycle Using an Aggregated PMI Series," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18.
    49. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    50. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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    53. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    54. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206, November.
    55. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
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    66. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    67. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    68. Bec, Frédérique & Kanda, Patrick, 2020. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations? An empirical assessment from US real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    69. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    70. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Eurozone Sovereign Yield Spreads and Diverging Economic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 9538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    78. Kamada, Koichiro, 2004. "Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    80. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    81. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
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    93. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers 2012-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    94. Kosei Fukuda, 2007. "Forecasting real-time data allowing for data revisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 429-444.
    95. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    96. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Makroökonomische Prognosen mit gemischten Frequenzen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
    97. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    98. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    99. Fackler, James S., 2002. "Comment on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-562, December.
    100. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
    101. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
    102. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    103. Andrew C. Chang & Tyler J. Hanson, 2015. "The Accuracy of Forecasts Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    104. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    105. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2021. "Determining Number of Factors in Dynamic Factor Models Contributing to GDP Nowcasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-23, November.
    106. Delphine Irac & Frédéric Sédillot, 2002. "Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM," Working papers 88, Banque de France.
    107. Nava, Consuelo R. & Osti, Linda & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "Forecasting Domestic Tourism across Regional Destinations through MIDAS Regressions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202207, University of Turin.
    108. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    109. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
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    112. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz & Tyler Radler, 2018. "Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    114. Duc Do, Nguyen, 2024. "Money/asset ratio as a predictor of inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
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    116. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
    117. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
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    119. Guerrero Víctor M. & García Andrea C. & Sainz Esperanza, 2013. "Rapid Estimates of Mexico’s Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 397-423, June.
    120. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
    121. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00511979, HAL.
    122. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
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    124. Andrew C. Chang, 2018. "Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    125. Iva Glišic, 2024. "A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers Bulletin 22, National Bank of Serbia.
    126. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    127. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    128. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
    129. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    130. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00505165, HAL.
    131. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    132. Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56.

  32. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

Articles

  1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Adam Check & Jeremy Piger, 2021. "Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1999-2036, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Cremaschini, Alessandro & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "A finite mixture analysis of structural breaks in the G-7 gross domestic product series," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 76-90.
    2. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models," Economics Working Papers 2021-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

  3. Hwu, Shih-Tang & Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2021. "An N-State Endogenous Markov-Switching Model With Applications In Macroeconomics And Finance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 1937-1965, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Coppola, Anna & Urga, Giovanni & Varaldo, Alessandro, 2025. "Asset class liquidity risk indicators. Timing the risk in the European and US equity and bond markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Ni, Jianhui & Ruan, Jia, 2024. "Contagion effects of external monetary shocks on systemic financial risk in China: Evidence from the Euro area and Japan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

  4. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.

    Cited by:

    1. Jiayan YU & Jingqian ZHANG & Hee Eun SHIN & Jooan KONG, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Crisis after a Decade: Statistical and Machine Learning Perspectives," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 14-19.
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Barış Soybilgen, 2020. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 827-840, August.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    6. Kovacs Kevin & Boulier Bryan & Stekler Herman, 2017. "Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(4), pages 329-341, August.
    7. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    8. Bart Keijsers & Dick van Dijk, 2022. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-069/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2023.
    9. Yizhan Shu & Chenyu Yu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Downside risk reduction using regime-switching signals: a statistical jump model approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 493-507, September.
    10. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    11. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024. "Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1199-1233, September.
    12. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning," Working Paper Series 2494, European Central Bank.
    13. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
    14. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2021. "Capital Flow Dynamics And The Synchronization Of Financial Cycles And Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers WP/02/2021, Bank Indonesia.
    15. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Pascal Michaillat, 2025. "Early and Accurate Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier," NBER Working Papers 34015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Joshua C. C. Chan & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2025. "Large Bayesian VARs for Binary and Censored Variables," Papers 2506.01422, arXiv.org.
    18. Soybilgen, Baris, 2018. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," MPRA Paper 94715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
    20. Herman O. Stekler & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Working Papers 2016-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    21. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.
    22. Ines Fortin & Sebastian P. Koch & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 107-137, January.
    23. Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2019. "A new approach to dating the reference cycle," Working Papers 1914, Banco de España.
    24. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    25. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    26. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    27. Troy Davig & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    28. James Morley, 2018. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 338-340, September.
    29. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Regime differences and industry heterogeneity of the volatility transmission from the energy price to the PPI," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 900-916.
    30. Ming-Chu Chiang & Tien Foo Sing & Long Wang, 2020. "Interactions Between Housing Market and Stock Market in the United States: A Markov Switching Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 552-571, October.

  5. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy & Rasche, Robert, 2015. "Inflation In The G7: Mind The Gap(S)?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 883-912, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2015. "Introduction To “Special Issue On The Empirical Analysis Of Business Cycles, Financial Markets, And Inflation: Essays In Honor Of Charles Nelson”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 723-727, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A., 2015. "Is Switzerland an interest rate island after all? Time series and non-linear switching regime evidence," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 15/08, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..

  8. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2014. "Determinants of foreign direct investment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 775-812, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2013. "Discordant city employment cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 367-384.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Angela K. Davis & Jeremy M. Piger & Lisa M. Sedor, 2012. "Beyond the Numbers: Measuring the Information Content of Earnings Press Release Language," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 845-868, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Iatridis, George Emmanuel, 2016. "Financial reporting language in financial statements: Does pessimism restrict the potential for managerial opportunism?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Bask, Mikael & Forsberg, Lars & Östling, Andreas, 2024. "Media sentiment and stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 303-311.
    3. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2022. "Media abnormal tone, earnings announcements, and the stock market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Chen, Zhenhua & Loftus, Serena, 2019. "Multi-method evidence on investors’ reactions to managers’ self-inclusive language," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. René Fahr & Anica Rose, 2017. "Causal Reasoning in Corporate Annual Reports: The Truth and Nothing But the Truth?," Working Papers Dissertations 25, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    6. Cong, Yunyu & Sun, Fangfang & Wang, Fusheng & Ye, Qiang, 2022. "Information assimilation and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from an investor relations management platform," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Yekini, Liafisu Sina, 2014. "Predicting Stock Market Returns Based on the Content of Annual Report Narrative: A New Anomaly," MPRA Paper 58107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Baochen Yang & Yifang Liu & Yunpeng Su, 2023. "Earnings communication conferences and post‐earnings‐announcement drift: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 2145-2185, June.
    9. Brown, T. & Grant, Stephanie M. & Winn, Amanda M., 2020. "The effect of mobile device use and headline focus on investor judgments," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Worek, Maija & De Massis, Alfredo & Wright, Mike & Veider, Viktoria, 2018. "Acquisitions, disclosed goals and firm characteristics: A content analysis of family and nonfamily firms," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 250-267.
    11. Yuming Zhang & Fan Yang, 2021. "Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure: Responding to Investors’ Criticism on Social Media," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-27, July.
    12. Yan Luo & Linying Zhou, 2020. "Textual tone in corporate financial disclosures: a survey of the literature," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 101-110, September.
    13. Kristian D. Allee & Matthew D. Deangelis, 2015. "The Structure of Voluntary Disclosure Narratives: Evidence from Tone Dispersion," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 53(2), pages 241-274, May.
    14. Xue, Wenjun & He, Zhongzhi & Wang, FeiFei, 2024. "MD&A tone and stock returns," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3).
    15. Luo, Shen & Li, Yuanhui, 2024. "The tone of earnings communication conferences and trade credit financing of listed companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Richard Cazier & Rosemond Desir & Ray J. Pfeiffer & Lumina Albert, 2020. "Intra-industry information transfer effects of leading firms’ earnings narratives," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 29-49, January.
    17. Wolfgang Breuer & Andreas Knetsch & Astrid Juliane Salzmann, 2020. "What Does It Mean When Managers Talk About Trust?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 473-488, October.
    18. Marie-Anne Verdier, 2014. "Quelles Strategies De Diffusion Pour Les Annonces De Reduction D'Effectifs ? Le Cas Des Entreprises Francaises Cotees," Post-Print hal-01899749, HAL.
    19. Jiao Ji & Oleksandr Talavera & Shuxing Yin, 2018. "The Hidden Information Content: Evidence from the Tone of Independent Director Reports," Working Papers 2018-28, Swansea University, School of Management.
    20. Guan, Kaolei & Fu, Mengting & Zhu, Haining, 2024. "Opportunistic behaviour behind corporate digitalization disclosure: The moderating role of economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    21. Kris Boudt & James Thewissen, 2019. "Jockeying for Position in CEO Letters: Impression Management and Sentiment Analytics," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 77-115, March.
    22. Azam Pouryousof & Farzaneh Nassirzadeh & Reza Hesarzadeh & Davood Askarany, 2022. "The Relationship between Managers’ Disclosure Tone and the Trading Volume of Investors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, December.
    23. Yu, Honglan & Attah-Boakye, Rexford & Zhang, Yameng & Adams, Kweku & Owusu-Yirenkyi, Diana, 2025. "Home–country technological legitimacy in crowdfunding: The moderating role of positive psychological capital language," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    24. Mather, Paul & Ranasinghe, Dinithi & Unda, Luisa A., 2021. "Are gender diverse boards more cautious? The impact of board gender diversity on sentiment in earnings press releases," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3).
    25. Andrew Vivian & Bin Xu, 2018. "Time-varying managerial overconfidence and pecking order preference," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 799-835, April.
    26. Blau, Benjamin M. & DeLisle, Jared R. & Price, S. McKay, 2015. "Do sophisticated investors interpret earnings conference call tone differently than investors at large? Evidence from short sales," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 203-219.
    27. Sun, Maogang & Li, Zhengyu & Yang, Lu, 2025. "Inconsistency across short-term and long-term oriented signals: Effect on investor reactions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    28. Benjamin Segal & Dan Segal, 2016. "Are managers strategic in reporting non-earnings news? Evidence on timing and news bundling," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1203-1244, December.
    29. John L. Campbell & Hye Seung “Grace” Lee & Hsin‐Min Lu & Logan B. Steele, 2020. "Express Yourself: Why Managers' Disclosure Tone Varies Across Time and What Investors Learn From It," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 1140-1171, June.
    30. Peng Xie & Jiming Wu & Hongwei Du, 2019. "The relative importance of competition to contagion: evidence from the digital currency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    31. Christina Bannier & Thomas Pauls & Andreas Walter, 2019. "Content analysis of business communication: introducing a German dictionary," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 79-123, February.
    32. Jason V. Chen & Itay Kama & Reuven Lehavy, 2019. "A contextual analysis of the impact of managerial expectations on asymmetric cost behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 665-693, June.
    33. Qian Wang & Duowen Wu & Lina Yan, 2021. "Effect of positive tone in MD&A disclosure on capital structure adjustment speed: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5809-5845, December.
    34. Tan, Hun-Tong & Yeo, Feng, 2023. "You have been forewarned! The effects of risk management disclosures and disclosure tone on investors’ judgments," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    35. Xi Fu & Xiaoxi Wu & Zhifang Zhang, 2021. "The Information Role of Earnings Conference Call Tone: Evidence from Stock Price Crash Risk," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 643-660, October.
    36. Peng Liang & Nan Hu & Ling Liu & Ting Zhang, 2023. "Managerial tone and investors' hedging activities: Evidence from credit default swaps," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 3971-3998, December.
    37. Sebastian Kaumanns, 2019. "“Some fuzzy math”: relational information on debt value adjustments by managers and the financial press," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 12(2), pages 755-794, December.
    38. John Donovan & Jared Jennings & Kevin Koharki & Joshua Lee, 2021. "Measuring credit risk using qualitative disclosure," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 815-863, June.
    39. Caylor, Marcus & Cecchini, Mark & Winchel, Jennifer, 2017. "Analysts' qualitative statements and the profitability of favorable investment recommendations," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-51.
    40. Laksmana, Indrarini & Harjoto, Maretno A. & Kim, Hoyoung, 2023. "Managing disclosure of political risk: The case of socially responsible firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    41. Ali Ataullah & Andrew Vivian & Bin Xu, 2018. "Optimistic Disclosure Tone and Conservative Debt Policy," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(4), pages 445-484, December.
    42. Asay, H. Scott & Libby, Robert & Rennekamp, Kristina M., 2018. "Do features that associate managers with a message magnify investors’ reactions to narrative disclosures?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 1-14.
    43. Claudia Arena & Saverio Bozzolan & Giovanna Michelon, 2015. "Environmental Reporting: Transparency to Stakeholders or Stakeholder Manipulation? An Analysis of Disclosure Tone and the Role of the Board of Directors," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 346-361, November.
    44. Chantziaras, Antonios & Koulikidou, Kleopatra & Leventis, Stergios, 2021. "The power of words in capital markets: SEC comment letters on foreign issuers and the impact of home country enforcement," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    45. Baginski, Stephen P. & Demers, Elizabeth & Kausar, Asad & Yu, Yingri Julia, 2018. "Linguistic tone and the small trader," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 21-37.
    46. Josef Schroth, 2018. "Managerial Compensation and Stock Price Manipulation," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 56(5), pages 1335-1381, December.
    47. Moreno, Alonso, 2024. "Impression management in bilingual corporate reporting: An analysis of textual characteristics in Spanish and English," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    48. Koulikidou, Kleopatra & Chantziaras, Antonios & Dedoulis, Emmanouil & Leventis, Stergios, 2023. "Regulatory enforcement, foreignness, and language negativity: Evidence from SEC comment letters," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    49. Boudt, Kris & Thewissen, James & Torsin, Wouter, 2018. "When does the tone of earnings press releases matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 231-245.
    50. Yingying Xin & Xiao Zeng & Zhengying Luo, 2022. "Customers' tone in MD&A disclosure and suppliers' inventory efficiency: Evidence from China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3833-3853, December.
    51. Gilberto Marquez-Illescas & Allan A. Zebedee & Linying Zhou, 2019. "Hear Me Write: Does CEO Narcissism Affect Disclosure?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 401-417, October.
    52. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Mawani, Amin & Shi, Guifeng & Zhou, Zejiang, 2020. "Impact of social capital on tone ambiguity in banks’ 10-K filings," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    53. Frankel, Richard & Jennings, Jared & Lee, Joshua, 2016. "Using unstructured and qualitative disclosures to explain accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 209-227.
    54. Huo, Di & Huang, Wei & Huang, Yuting & Ke, Youlin & Shen, Zhe, 2024. "Stock exchange comment letters and MD&A tone management," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    55. Liu, Pu & Nguyen, Hazel T., 2020. "CEO characteristics and tone at the top inconsistency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    56. Eryka Probierz & Adam Galuszka & Katarzyna Klimczak & Karol Jedrasiak & Tomasz Wisniewski & Tomasz Dzida, 2021. "Financial Sentiment on Twitter's Community and it's Connection to Polish Stock Market Movements in Context of Behavior Modelling," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4 - Part ), pages 56-65.
    57. Ankit Jain & Hariom Manchiraju & Shyam V. Sunder, 2023. "Institutional ownership and the informativeness of disclosure tone," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1-2), pages 61-90, January.
    58. Dale L. Flesher & Gary John Previts & Andrew D. Sharp, 2020. "Accounting Discoveries from Archival Research: The Mobile and Ohio, an Antebellum Southern Railroad," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(1), pages 140-163, March.
    59. Sri Ningsih & Iman Harymawan & Nurul Fitriani & Brian Lam, 2021. "Pessimistic Tone in Earnings Announcement and CSR Disclosure: Exploring the Interacting Role of CEO Busyness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-19, December.
    60. Lorenzo Patelli & Matteo Pedrini, 2014. "Is the Optimism in CEO’s Letters to Shareholders Sincere? Impression Management Versus Communicative Action During the Economic Crisis," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 19-34, September.
    61. Li, Xiao, 2020. "When financial literacy meets textual analysis: A conceptual review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    62. Carlo D'Augusta & Matthew D. DeAngelis, 2020. "Does Accounting Conservatism Discipline Qualitative Disclosure? Evidence From Tone Management in the MD&A," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 2287-2318, December.
    63. Doshi, Hitesh & Patel, Saurin & Ramani, Srikanth & Sooy, Matthew, 2023. "Uncertain tone, asset volatility and credit default swap spreads," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3).
    64. Kate Suslava, 2021. "“Stiff Business Headwinds and Uncharted Economic Waters”: The Use of Euphemisms in Earnings Conference Calls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7184-7213, November.
    65. Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Xiong, Long & Cen, Tao & Bai, Ling & Zhao, Na & Zhang, Jiu & Zheng, Chang-Juan & Jiang, Tian-Ying, 2022. "Analyst sentiment and earning forecast bias in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    66. Chen, Hua & Wang, Zhuang, 2025. "Does ESG rating disagreement affect management tone manipulation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    67. Bassyouny, Hesham & Abdelfattah, Tarek & Tao, Lei, 2020. "Beyond narrative disclosure tone: The upper echelons theory perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    68. Kerstin Lopatta & Mario Albert Gloger & Reemda Jaeschke, 2017. "Can Language Predict Bankruptcy? The Explanatory Power of Tone in 10‐K Filings," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 315-343, December.
    69. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Hatem Rjiba, 2019. "Annual report readability and stock liquidity," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 159-186, May.
    70. Guo, Haifeng & Wang, Ying & Wang, Bo & Ge, Yuanjing, 2022. "Does prospectus AE affect IPO underpricing? A content analysis of the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-12.
    71. Sun, Lan & Liu, Shaobo & Chen, Peng, 2022. "Does the paternalism of founder-managers improve firm innovation? Evidence from Chinese non-state-owned listed firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    72. Qingbin Meng & Congyi Ju & Qinghua Huang & Song Wang, 2023. "The informativeness of investor communication with corporate insiders: Evidence from China," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 189-207, August.
    73. Wei, Fang & Yan, Siyao & Su, Daan & Zhang, Minyuan, 2024. "Management tone and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from Chinese listed companies' involvement in rural revitalization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    74. Jaeschke, Reemda & Lopatta, Kerstin & Yi, Cheong, 2018. "Managers’ use of language in corrupt firms’ financial disclosures: Evidence from FCPA violators," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 170-192.
    75. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Polizzi, Salvatore & Reghezza, Alessio & Scannella, Enzo, 2023. "Do banks practice what they preach? Brown lending and environmental disclosure in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 18623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Patrick Fève & Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2019. "Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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    18. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Papers (Old Series) 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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    20. Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
    21. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
    22. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    23. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
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  14. Michelle T. Armesto & Rub…N Hern¡Ndez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger, 2009. "Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 35-55, February.

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    2. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    3. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    4. Luiz Renato Lima & Lucas Lúcio Godeiro & Mohammed Mohsin, 2021. "Time-Varying Dictionary and the Predictive Power of FED Minutes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 149-181, January.
    5. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2021. "Economic prediction with the FOMC minutes: An application of text mining," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 751-761.
    6. Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. Bahar Şen Doğan & Murat Midiliç, 2019. "Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 367-395, January.
    8. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasting with LSTM and mixed frequency time series data," Papers 2109.13777, arXiv.org.
    9. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
    10. Cláudia Duarte, 2014. "Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS regressions," Working Papers w201401, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (Home) Bias of European Central Bankers: New Evidence Based on Speeches," Post-Print hal-01589264, HAL.
    12. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Born, Benjamin, 2010. "Macroprudential policy and central bank communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 8094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.
    14. J. Scott Davis & Mark A. Wynne, 2016. "Central bank communications: a case study," Globalization Institute Working Papers 283, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. J. Isaac Miller, 2012. "Mixed-frequency Cointegrating Regressions with Parsimonious Distributed Lag Structures," Working Papers 1211, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    16. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
    17. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan & Zhou, Huan, 2014. "Can we Automate Earnings Forecasts and Beat Analysts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Herman O. Stekler & Hilary Symington, 2014. "How Did The Fomc View The Great Recession As It Was Happening?: Evaluating The Minutes From Fomc Meetings, 2006-2010," Working Papers 2014-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    19. Ingrid E. Fisher & Margaret R. Garnsey & Mark E. Hughes, 2016. "Natural Language Processing in Accounting, Auditing and Finance: A Synthesis of the Literature with a Roadmap for Future Research," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 157-214, July.
    20. Sadique, Shibley & In, Francis & Veeraraghavan, Madhu & Wachtel, Paul, 2013. "Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 81-92.
    21. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    22. Christoph S. Weber, 2017. "The Effect of Central Bank Transparency on Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers 174, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    23. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Perez & Elena Vidal, 2024. "Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 643-692, August.
    24. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    25. Charles S. Gascon & Devin Werner, 2022. "Does the Beige Book Reflect U.S. Employment and Inflation Trends?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 13, pages 1-3, June.
    26. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes," Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    27. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    28. Kathryn Lundquist & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    29. Amrendra Pandey & Jagadish Shettigar & Amarnath Bose, 2021. "Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    30. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan, 2017. "Automated Earnings Forecasts:- Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Joel Elvery, 2024. "Introduction to the Cleveland Fed Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) Indexes," Cleveland Fed District Data Brief 99167, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    32. Paul Gower & Florian Meier & Karl Shutes, 2019. "Regulator Communication and Market Confidence in Difficult Times: Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(4), pages 1-24.
    33. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.

  15. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2008. "Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 85-116, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.

    Cited by:

    1. Craighead, William D. & Tien, Pao-Lin, 2015. "Nominal shocks and real exchange rates: Evidence from two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-157.
    2. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    3. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2010. "Exchange-Rate Return Predictability and the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from Major Foreign Exchange Rates," Working Papers hal-00547722, HAL.
    6. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    8. Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December.
    9. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2011. "Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2011-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    10. Rizwan Khalid & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Bushra Naqvi, 2023. "Impact of capital account liberalization on stock market crashes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3700-3726, October.
    11. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.

  19. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Cremaschini, Alessandro & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "A finite mixture analysis of structural breaks in the G-7 gross domestic product series," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 76-90.
    3. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 35-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
    5. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    6. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    7. Keun Yeong Lee, 2023. "The synchronization between Korea's and Japan's business cycles," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 435-465, December.
    8. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2016. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    10. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    11. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
    12. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    13. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    14. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    15. Kim, Jaeho & Linn, Scott C., 2022. "Price discovery under model uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    18. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2023. "Trend and cycle decomposition of Markov switching (co)integrated time series," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(5), pages 1381-1406, December.

  20. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 51-80.

    Cited by:

    1. Saborowski, Christian, 2009. "Inflation Targeting as a Means of Achieving Disinflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 894, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Charles Freedman, 2009. "It Framework Design Parameters," IMF Working Papers 2009/087, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    4. Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & John Simon & Susan Wachter, 2015. "Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2015/133, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Hoogduin, Lex & van der Cruijsen, Carin, 2008. "Optimal Central Bank Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 6889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence in Asia," CEPR Discussion Papers 8046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Uganda: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 201772, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Peter Tillmann, 2010. "The changing nature of inflation persistence in Switzerland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 445-453, November.
    9. René Cabral, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for EMEs?," Working Papers 20061, Escuela de Graduados en Administración Pública y Políticas Públicas, Campus Monterrey, revised Dec 2006.
    10. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Post-Print hal-02082568, HAL.
    11. Alan S. Blinder, 2008. "Talking about Monetary Policy: The Virtues (and Vices?) of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 1048, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. Abdelkader AGUIR, 2016. "Régime de ciblage d'inflation et crise financière : efficacité et performance," Post-Print hal-03825936, HAL.
    13. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Abdul Aleem & Amine Lahiani, 2014. "A Threshold Vector Autoregression Model of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Mexico," Post-Print halshs-01022416, HAL.
    15. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    16. Ftiti, Zied & Hichri, Walid, 2014. "The price stability under inflation targeting regime: An analysis with a new intermediate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 23-32.
    17. Robert Amano & Steve Ambler & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Nonzero Trend Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1821-1838, October.
    18. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    19. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2017. "Level, structure, and volatility of financial development and inflation targeting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 108-124.
    20. Ehrmann, Michael, 2021. "Point targets, tolerance bands or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Eric Gaus, 2014. "Adaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance," Working Papers 14-03, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    22. Armand FOUEJIEU AZANGUE, 2012. "Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 370, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    23. Baltensperger, Ernst & Fischer, Andreas M. & Jordan, Thomas J., 2007. "Strong goal independence and inflation targets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 88-105, March.
    24. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, April.
    25. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(3), pages 283-297, July.
    26. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
    27. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy in South Africa: is the 3% to 6% inflation target too persistent?," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 111-124.
    28. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Interpreting Inflation Persistence: Comments on the Conference on "Quantitative Evidence on Price Determination"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 203-210, February.
    29. Sangyup Choi & David Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Myungkyu shim, 2021. "Inflation Anchoring and Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints," Working papers 2021rwp-188, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    30. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
    31. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data," Working Paper Series 1945, European Central Bank.
    32. Qiu, Christina M., 2022. "Regionalized liquidity: A cross-country analysis of mobile money deployment and inflation in developing economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    33. Carlos Medel, 2018. "Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 825, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    35. Martin Melecky & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 490, Central Bank of Chile.
    36. Moretti, Laura, 2012. "Inflation targeting and product market deregulation," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    37. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2008. "Has the Adoption of Inflation Targeting Represented a Regime Switch? Empirical evidence from Canada, Sweden and the UK," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01064264, HAL.
    38. Tiff Macklem, 2005. "Commentary : central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 475-494.
    39. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2015/132, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Daianu, Daniel & Kallai, Ella, 2008. "Disinflation and Inflation Targeting in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 59-81, March.
    41. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.
    42. Faul, Joseph & Khumalo, Bridgette & Pashe, Mpho & Khuzwayo, Miranda & Banda, Kamogelo & Jali, Senzo & Myeni, Bathandekile & Pule, Retlaodirela & Mosito, Boitshoko & Jack, Lona-u-Thando & Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Is South Africa's inflation target too persistent for monetary policy conduct?," MPRA Paper 58233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    44. Christoph S. Weber, 2016. "Central Bank Transparency and Inflation (Volatility) – New Evidence," Working Papers 163, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    45. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343, Elsevier.
    46. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Experiments on Monetary Policy and Central Banking," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 167-227, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    47. Kesavarajah Mayandy & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Inflation-Output Variability in Sri Lanka: Lessons for Developing Economies," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2001, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    48. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.
    49. Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M'Baye, 2016. "Band or Point Inflation Targeting? An Experimental Approach," Working Papers halshs-01313095, HAL.
    50. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
    51. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    52. Armand Fouejieu A., 2013. "Coping with the recent financial crisis: Did inflation targeting make any difference?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 133, pages 72-92.
    53. David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos‐Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, July.
    55. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 2005/089, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    57. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    58. Luke Byrne Willard, 2012. "Does inflation targeting matter? A reassessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(17), pages 2231-2244, June.
    59. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    60. Csermely, Ágnes, 2006. "Az inflációs cél követésének rendszere Magyarországon [The system for targeting inflation goals in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1058-1079.
    61. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Assessing Inflation Targeting Through Intervention Analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    62. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    63. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    64. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    65. Luis Pacheco, 2010. "ECB Projections: should leave it to the pros?," Working Papers 11/2010, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    66. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    67. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
    68. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Reginaldo P. Nogueira Júnior, 2010. "Is low inflation really causing the decline in exchange rate pass-through?," Studies in Economics 1002, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    69. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
    70. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Saurabh Mishra & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2017/196, International Monetary Fund.
    71. Stephen G Cecchetti, 2010. "Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 1-11, Bank for International Settlements.
    72. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2539-2585, November.
    73. Stan Du Plessis & Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2018. "What Drives Household Inflation Expectations in South Africa? Demographics and Anchoring Under Inflation Targeting," CAMA Working Papers 2018-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    74. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    75. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    76. Anca Tanasie, 2010. "A Brief Evaluation Of Inflation Targeting In Romania Envisaging The Euro Adoption," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(38), pages 180-189, May.
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    79. Arestis, Philip & Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Moschos, Demetrios, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation convergence: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 285-295.
    80. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    81. Zied Ftiti & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Shifts and Persistence in Tunisia: Perspective from an Evolutionary spectral approach," Working Papers 2014-124, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    82. Taner Yigit, 2007. "Inflation Targeting : An Indirect Approach to Assess the Direct Impact," Working Papers 0706, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    83. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    84. José De Gregorio, 2019. "Inflation Targets in Latin America," Working Paper Series WP19-19, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    85. Bonomo, Marco & Carvalho, Carlos & Eusepi, Stefano & Perrupato, Marina & Abib, Daniel & Ayres, João & Matos, Silvia, 2024. "Abrupt monetary policy change and unanchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
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  28. Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Does inflation targeting make a difference?," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr.

    Cited by:

    1. BEN ROMDHANE, Ikram & MENSI, Sami, 2014. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting: Evidence from OECD Economies," MPRA Paper 60108, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Nov 2014.

  29. Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Pushing on a string," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar.

    Cited by:

    1. Mallaye, Douzounet, 2009. "Reformes Monétaires Et Croissance Économique En Zone Cemac [Monetary Reforms And Economic Growth In Cemac Zone]," MPRA Paper 19621, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  30. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Mar), pages 47-61.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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