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Breaking Up: Fragmentation in Foreign Direct Investment

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Abstract

Rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities have driven recent fragmentation of foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper provides systematic evidence of FDI fragmentation along ideological and geographic lines across five dimensions: shifting away from ideologically distant countries (ideological sorting), prioritizing politically aligned countries (friendshoring), reducing exposure to specific high-risk countries (derisking), moving production closer to the home country (nearshoring), and returning investment to the home country (reshoring). Measures of FDI based on financial transactions reveal evidence of ideological sorting and nearshoring. The capital expenditures of multinational enterprises and their affiliates display ideological sorting, derisking, nearshoring, and reshoring. Cross-border M&A deals reflect patterns of derisking, while horizontal (but not vertical) M&A exhibits broader ideological realignment. At the industry level, derisking and ideological sorting appear widely distributed. By contrast, friendshoring and nearshoring of M&A remain concentrated in goods-producing sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Cody Kallen, 2025. "Breaking Up: Fragmentation in Foreign Direct Investment," International Finance Discussion Papers 1413, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1413
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2025.1413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Faber, Marius & Kilic, Kemal & Kozliakov, Gleb & Marin, Dalia, 2025. "Global value chains in a world of uncertainty and automation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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