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Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison

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  • Jim Dolmas
  • Evan F. Koenig

Abstract

Trimmed-mean personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation does not clearly dominate PCE inflation excluding food and energy in real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. However, trimmed-mean inflation is the superior communications and policy tool because it has been a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation and because it more successfully filters out headline inflation?s transitory variation, leaving only cyclical and trend components.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2019. "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00123
    DOI: 10.20955/r.101.245-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Papers (Old Series) 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
    3. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2020. "The Nonpuzzling Behavior of Median Inflation," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 3, pages 049-070, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    6. Jim Dolmas, 2005. "Trimmed mean PCE inflation," Working Papers 0506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Tyler Atkinson & Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "Inflation, slack, and Fed credibility," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhiyong Fan & Yushan Hu & Penglong Zhang, 2022. "Measuring China's core inflation for forecasting purposes: taking persistence as weight," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 93-111, July.
    2. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," IMF Working Papers 2022/208, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/291, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    6. Guillermo Carlomagno & Jorge Fornero & Andrés Sansone, 2021. "Toward a general framework for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 913, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Ball, Laurence & Carvalho, Carlos & Evans, Christopher & Antonio Ricci, Luca, 2024. "Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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