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Core import price inflation in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Koech, Janet

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Wynne, Mark A.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Abstract

The cross-section distribution of U.S. import prices exhibits some of the fat-tailed characteristics that are well documented for the cross-section distribution of U.S. consumer prices. This suggests that limited-influence estimators of core import price inflation might outperform headline or traditional measures of core import price inflation. We examine whether limited influence estimators of core import price inflation help forecast overall import price inflation. They do not. However, limited influence estimators of core import price inflation do seem to have some predictive power for headline consumer price inflation in the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Koech, Janet & Wynne, Mark A., 2012. "Core import price inflation in the United States," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 131, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:131
    Note: Published as: Koech, Janet and Mark A. Wynne (2013), "Core Import Price Inflation in the United States," Open Economies Review 24 (4): 717-730.
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2012/0131.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    2. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 479-489, March.
    3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    5. James Dolmas, 2005. "Trimmed mean PCE inflation," Working Papers 0506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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