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Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation

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  • Marcel Förster

  • Peter Tillmann

Abstract

In this paper we reconsider the degree of international comovement of inflation rates. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in a panel of countries into (i) a factor common to all inflation series and all countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given sub-section of the CPI, (iii) a country group-factor and (iv) a country-specific component. With its pyramidal structure, the model allows for the possibility that the global factor affects the country-group factor and other subordinated factors but not vice versa. Using quarterly data for industrialized and emerging economies from 1996 to 2011 we find that about two thirds of overall inflation volatility is due to country-specific determinants. For CPI inflation net of food and energy, the global factor and the CPI basket-specific factor account for less than 20 % of inflation variation. Only energy price inflation in industrial economies is dominated by common factors. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:841-863
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-014-9312-1
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    1. Luis J. Álvarez & Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos, 2021. "Inflation comovements in advanced economies: Facts and drivers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 485-509, February.
    2. Aleksei Kiselev & Aleksandra Zhivaykina, 2019. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps53, Bank of Russia.
    3. Saban Nazlioglu & Sinem Pinar Gurel & Sevcan Gunes & Tugba Akin & Cagin Karul & Muhsin Kar, 2025. "Inflation co-movement: new insights from quantile factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 431-464, July.
    4. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    5. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the globalisation of inflation?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-27.
    6. Saygılı, Hülya, 2023. "How do real and monetary integrations affect inflation dynamics?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 18-27.
    7. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Parker, Miles, 2024. "A global database for energy consumer price indices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Patrick Blagrave, 2020. "Inflation co-movement in emerging and developing Asia: the monsoon effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(15), pages 1277-1283, September.
    10. Parker, Miles, 2018. "How global is “global inflation”?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-197.
    11. Liu, Dayu & Wang, Qiaoru & Song, Yang, 2020. "China’s business cycles at the provincial level: National synchronization, interregional coordination and provincial idiosyncrasy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 629-650.
    12. Aleš Bulíř & Jaromír Hurník & Kateřina Šmídková, 2016. "What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 795-810, September.
    13. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    14. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. John A. Tatom, 2017. "Globalization and Inflation: a Swiss Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 523-545, July.
    17. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Luis J. Álvarez & Ana Gómez Loscos & M.ª Dolores Gadea, 2020. "The relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 1/2020.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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