Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation
In this paper we reconsider the degree of international comovement of inflation rates. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in a panel of countries into (i) a factor common to all inflation series and all countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given sub-section of the CPI, (iii) a country group-factor and (iv) a country-specific component. With its pyramidal structure, the model allows for the possibility that the global factor affects the country-group factor and other subordinated factors but not vice versa. Using quarterly data for industrialized and emerging economies from 1996 to 2011 we find that about two thirds of overall inflation volatility are due to country-specific determinants. For CPI inflation net of food and energy, the global factor and the CPI basketspecific factor account for less than 20% of inflation variation. We argue that "local inflation" rather than "global inflation" (Ciccarelli and Mojon (2010)) is a better description of the evidence. Only energy price inflation in industrial economies is dominated by common factors.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg|
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, 08.
- Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng, 2011.
"A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages C1-C24, 02.
- Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng, 2011. "A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages C1-C24, February.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011.
"International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
- Mumtaz, Haroon & Simonelli, Saverio & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective," Discussion Papers 28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Code and data files for "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: A Historical Perspective"," Computer Codes 09-235, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2009. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," CSEF Working Papers 233, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Marcel Förster & Markus Jorra & Peter Tillmann, 2012.
"The Dynamics of International Capital Flows: Results from a Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model,"
MAGKS Papers on Economics
201221, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
- Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2008.
"The Effect of Trade with Low-Income Countries on U.S. Industry,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
- Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2008. "The effect of trade with low-income countries on U.S. industry," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 14, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Raphael Anton Auer & Andreas M. Fischer, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Wage Import Competition on U.S. Inflationary Pressure," Working Papers 2008-18, Swiss National Bank.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernd Hayo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.