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Estimation of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule Using Real-Time U.S. Data

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  • Lamarche Jean-Francois
  • Koustasy Zisimos

    (Brock University)

Abstract

This paper extends the work in Orphanides (2003) by re-examining the empirical evidence for a Taylor rule in a nonlinear framework. In doing so, it updates the Greenbook dataset used by the afore mentioned author to the most recent available period. A three-regime threshold regression model is utilized to capture the possibly asymmetric policy reaction function used by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The theoretical foundations for such an approach to monetary policy are discussed in Orphanides and Wilcox (2002). Our results indicate that the estimated Taylor rule for the U.S., based on real-time Greenbook data for the period 1982:3-2003:4, is probably nonlinear.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamarche Jean-Francois & Koustasy Zisimos, 2012. "Estimation of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule Using Real-Time U.S. Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:16:y:2012:i:5:p:1-26:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/1558-3708.1876
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    Cited by:

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    2. Saad Ahmad, 2020. "Identifying a robust policy rule for the Fed's response to financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 565-578, October.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jung, Alexander & Kiss, Gergely, 2012. "Preference heterogeneity in the CEE inflation-targeting countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-460.
    5. Hurn Stan & Johnson Nicholas & Silvennoinen Annastiina & Teräsvirta Timo, 2022. "Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(5), pages 635-647, December.
    6. Hongyi Chen & Michael Funke & Ivan Lozev & Andrew Tsang, 2020. "To Guide or Not to Guide? Quantitative Monetary Policy Tools and Macroeconomic Dynamics in China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 49-94, October.
    7. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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