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Estimation of a nonlinear Taylor rule using real-time U.S. data

Author

Listed:
  • Zisimos Koustas

    () (Department of Economics, Brock University)

  • Jean-Francois Lamarche

    () (Department of Economics, Brock University)

Abstract

This paper extends the work in Orphanides (2003) by re-examining the empirical evidence for a Taylor rule in a nonlinear framework. In doing so, it updates the Greenbook dataset used by the afore men- tioned author to the most recent available period. A three-regime threshold regression model is utilized to capture the possibly asymmetric policy reaction function used by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The theoretical foundations for such an approach to monetary policy are discussed in Orphanides and Wilcox (2002). Our results indicate that the estimated Taylor rule for the U.S., based on real-time Greenbook data for the period 1982:3-2003:4, is probably nonlinear.

Suggested Citation

  • Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2010. "Estimation of a nonlinear Taylor rule using real-time U.S. data," Working Papers 1005, Brock University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:1005
    as

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    File URL: https://brocku.ca/repec/pdf/1005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florio, Anna, 2006. "Asymmetric interest rate smoothing: The Fed approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 190-195, November.
    2. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    4. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Jung & Gergely Kiss, 2012. "Voting by monetary policy committees: evidence from the CEE inflation-targeting countries," MNB Working Papers 2012/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Jung, Alexander & Kiss, Gergely, 2012. "Preference heterogeneity in the CEE inflation-targeting countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-460.
    3. Chen, Hongyi & Funke, Michael & Lozev, Ivan & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "To guide or not to guide? Quantitative monetary policy tools and macroeconomic dynamics in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thresholds; Nonlinear Models; Taylor Rule; Real-Time Data;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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