The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics Letters, March 2006, 90(3), pp. 339-5|
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University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
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"Business cycle phases in U.S. states,"
2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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