Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Hernández-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield state-level forecasts). The authors find that the spatial relationships between states have sufficient predictive content to overcome small increases in the number of estimated parameters when forecasting regional-level data; this is not always true when forecasting state- and regional-level data using the sum of MSA-level forecasts.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Oct ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008.
"The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall & Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006.
"A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
131, Society for Computational Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004.
"Aggregation of space-time processes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002. "Aggregation of Space-Time Processes," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 582, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004.
"Business cycle phases in U.S. states,"
2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T., 2006.
"The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions,"
Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 335-339, March.
- Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Working Papers 2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006.
"Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates,"
Working Paper Series
0589, European Central Bank.
- Conley, Timothy G. & Molinari, Francesca, 2005.
"Spatial Correlation Robust Inference with Errors in Location or Distance,"
05-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Conley, Timothy G. & Molinari, Francesca, 2007. "Spatial correlation robust inference with errors in location or distance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 76-96, September.
- Timothy Conley & Francesca Molinari, 2005. "Spatial correlation robust inference with Errors in Location or Distance," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/05, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Lesage, James P & Magura, Michael, 1990. "Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 127-35, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrd:y:2008:i:oct:p:15-29:n:v.4no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.