The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.
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- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005.
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