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Regulatory Chill and the Effect of Investor State Dispute Settlements

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  • Eckhard Janeba

Abstract

Legal conflicts between multinational firms and host governments are often decided by international arbitration panels - as opposed to courts in the host country - due to provisions in international investment agreements known as Investor State Dispute Settlements (ISDS). Critics fear that investor protection such as ISDS make governments reluctant to adopt appropriate policies (regulatory chill). In this paper I develop a theoretical model in which the outcome of cases brought to court is uncertain due to the vagueness of the law protecting investors and a court’s inability to correctly identify a state of nature with certainty. I show that from a world welfare perspective there is no underregulation, only an overregulation problem. However, from a national welfare perspective “frivolous” lawsuits may lead to regulatory chill. I also identify conditions under which ISDS can lead to a Pareto improvement which involves simultaneous changes in compensation payments and protection rights relative to a national court.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckhard Janeba, 2016. "Regulatory Chill and the Effect of Investor State Dispute Settlements," CESifo Working Paper Series 6188, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6188
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    6. Kohler, Wilhelm & Stähler, Frank, 2019. "The economics of investor protection: ISDS versus national treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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    8. Berger, Axel & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Roy, Martin, 2011. "More stringent BITs, less ambiguous effects on FDI? Not a bit!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 270-272, September.
    9. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.
    10. David Gaukrodger & Kathryn Gordon, 2012. "Investor-State Dispute Settlement: A Scoping Paper for the Investment Policy Community," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2012/3, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richardson, Martin & Stähler, Frank, 2019. "International agreements, economic sovereignty and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Guttorm Schjelderup & Frank Stähler, 2021. "Investor‐state dispute settlement and multinational firm behavior," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1013-1024, September.
    3. Horn, Henrik, 2022. "Investment Treaty Reform when Regulatory Chill Causes Global Warming," Working Paper Series 1450, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 13 Feb 2023.
    4. Kohler, Wilhelm & Stähler, Frank, 2019. "The economics of investor protection: ISDS versus national treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Konrad, Kai A., 2017. "Large investors, regulatory taking and investor-state dispute settlement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 341-353.
    6. Haufler, Andreas & Mardan, Mohammed & Schindler, Dirk, 2018. "Double tax discrimination to attract FDI and fight profit shifting: The role of CFC rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 25-43.
    7. Ralph Ossa & Robert W. Staiger & Alan O. Sykes, 2020. "Disputes in International Investment and Trade," NBER Working Papers 27012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Horn, Henrik & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan, 2018. "A Non-Technical Introduction to Economic Aspects of International Investment Agreements," Working Paper Series 1250, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    9. Horn, Henrik & Tangerås, Thomas, 2021. "Economics of international investment agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Thow, Anne Marie & Garde, Amandine & Winters, L. Alan & Johnson, Ellen & Mabhala, Andi & Kingston, Paul & Barlow, Pepita, 2022. "Protecting noncommunicable disease prevention policy in trade and investment agreements," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114937, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Frank Stähler, 2023. "An optimal investor-state dispute settlement mechanism," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 1-16, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor State Dispute Settlement; regulatory chill; international investment agreement; foreign direct investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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