IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cml/wpseri/01.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: does financial development break the link?

Author

Listed:
  • Matias Ossandon Busch

    (CEMLA)

  • Manuel Ramos-Francia

    (CEMLA)

  • Ricardo Montañez

    (CEMLA)

  • Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo

    (Banco de Mexico)

  • José Manuel Sánchez-Martínez

    (McGill University)

  • Anahí Rodríguez-Martínez

    (University College London)

Abstract

Does financial development shield countries from the pass-through of financial shocks to real outcomes? We evaluate this question by characterizing the probability density of expected GDP growth conditional on financial stress indicators in a panel of 28 countries. Our robust results unveil a non-linear nexus between financial stress and expected GDP growth, depending on countries' degree of financial development. While both domestic and global financial factors affect expected growth, the effect of global stress factors is moderated by financial development. This result highlights a previously unexplored channel trough which financial development can break the link between financial (in)stability and GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Matias Ossandon Busch & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Ricardo Montañez & Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo & José Manuel Sánchez-Martínez & Anahí Rodríguez-Martínez, 2023. "Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: does financial development break the link?," CEMLA Working Paper Series 01/2023, CEMLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cml:wpseri:01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemla.org/PDF/investigacion/2023/cemla_wpseries_012023.pdf
    File Function: 2023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Kangni Kpodar & Maëlan Le Goff & Raju Jan Singh, 2019. "Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks and Growth in Low-Income Countries," Working papers 719, Banque de France.
    3. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    4. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
    6. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Leonardo Del Vecchio & Arianna Miglietta, 2019. "Financial Conditions and 'Growth at Risk' in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Campos, Nauro F. & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 3332, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    9. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    11. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    12. Franta, Michal & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2020. "On the effects of macroprudential policies on Growth-at-Risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    13. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. John (Jianqiu) Bai & Daniel Carvalho & Gordon M. Phillips, 2018. "The Impact of Bank Credit on Labor Reallocation and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2787-2836, December.
    15. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Roland Kangni KPODAR & Maëlan LE GOFF & Raju Jan SINGH, 2018. "Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries," Working Papers P238, FERDI.
    17. Altunbaş, Yener & Thornton, John, 2019. "The impact of financial development on income inequality: A quantile regression approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 51-56.
    18. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    19. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    20. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    21. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter‐Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, June.
    22. Jorge E. Galán, 2020. "The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2007, Banco de España.
    23. Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Phakawa Jeasakul & Romain Lafarguette & Mr. Adrian Alter & Alan Xiaochen Feng & Changchun Wang, 2019. "Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2019/036, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    25. Bedayo, Mikel & Estrada, Ángel & Saurina, Jesús, 2020. "Bank capital, lending booms, and busts: Evidence from Spain over the last 150 years," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    26. Manganelli, Simone & Popov, Alexander, 2015. "Financial development, sectoral reallocation, and volatility: International evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 323-337.
    27. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    28. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain & Thoenig, Mathias, 2009. "Growth and risk at the industry level: The real effects of financial liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 210-222, July.
    29. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Melgar, Natalia, 2018. "Country transparency and the global transmission of financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 56-72.
    30. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    31. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2020. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Bank of England working papers 881, Bank of England.
    32. Vermeulen, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2014. "Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 88-106.
    33. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Erik Feyen & Ross Levine, 2013. "The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 27(3), pages 476-490.
    34. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    35. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114.
    36. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    37. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    38. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    39. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
    40. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    41. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
    42. Kıvanç Karaman, K. & Yıldırım-Karaman, Seçil, 2019. "How does financial development alter the impact of uncertainty?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 33-42.
    43. Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2011. "Firm survival and financial development: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1736-1752, July.
    44. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2021. "Finance and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-107.
    45. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    46. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    47. Bacchetta, Philippe & Caminal, Ramon, 2000. "Do capital market imperfections exacerbate output fluctuations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 449-468, March.
    48. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    49. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    50. Benczúr, Péter & Karagiannis, Stelios & Kvedaras, Virmantas, 2019. "Finance and economic growth: Financing structure and non-linear impact," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    51. Felix Rioja & Neven Valev, 2014. "Stock markets, banks and the sources of economic growth in low and high income countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 302-320, April.
    52. Sobiech, Izabela, 2019. "Remittances, finance and growth: Does financial development foster the impact of remittances on economic growth?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 44-59.
    53. Espinosa-Vega, Marco A. & Russell, Steven, 2020. "Interconnectedness, systemic crises, and recessions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    54. Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Guest Workers: Financial Development and Economic Growth: Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknowns," IHEID Working Papers 13-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    55. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Lee, Gabriel S., 2021. "Uncertainty, financial development, and FDI inflows: Global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    57. Beck, Thorsten & Degryse, Hans & Kneer, Christiane, 2014. "Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 50-64.
    58. Araujo, Juliana D. & David, Antonio C. & van Hombeeck, Carlos & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2017. "Joining the club? Procyclicality of private capital inflows in lower income developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 157-182.
    59. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    60. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    61. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
    62. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Garcia-Verdu, Santiago, 2018. "Is trouble brewing for emerging market economies? An empirical analysis of emerging market economies’ bond flows," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-191.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xue, Wen-Jun, 2020. "Financial sector development and growth volatility: An international study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 67-88.
    2. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Does financial development volatility affect industrial growth volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 307-320.
    3. Manganelli, Simone & Popov, Alexander, 2015. "Financial development, sectoral reallocation, and volatility: International evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 323-337.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Degryse, Hans & Kneer, Christiane, 2014. "Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 50-64.
    5. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    6. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    7. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    8. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Martin Strieborny & Madina Kukenova, 2016. "Investment in Relationship-Specific Assets: Does Finance Matter?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1487-1515.
    10. Marc Steffen Rapp & Iuliia A. Udoieva, 2018. "What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 676-690, February.
    11. Zouaoui, Haykel & Mazioud, Manel & Ellouz, Nidhal Ziedi, 2018. "A semi-parametric panel data analysis on financial development-economic volatility nexus in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 50-55.
    12. Emanuele Ciola, 2020. "Financial sector bargaining power, aggregate growth and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 89-109, January.
    13. Thorsten Beck, 2009. "The Econometrics of Finance and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 25, pages 1180-1209, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    15. Thiago Christiano Silva & Iftekhar Hasan & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2021. "Financing choice and local economic growth: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 329-357, September.
    16. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Morganti, Patrizio & Garofalo, Giuseppe, 2019. "Reassessing the law, finance, and growth nexus after the recent Great recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 229-250.
    18. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    19. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    20. Su-Yin Cheng & Han Hou, 2022. "Innovation, financial development, and growth: evidences from industrial and emerging countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1629-1653, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; financial stability; financial development; capital flows; growth at risk.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cml:wpseri:01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Matias Ossandon Busch (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemlamx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.