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Looking for a break in Spanish Inflation Data in the early eighties and assessing persistence

  • Maria Teresa Mota

    (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)

  • Mariana Alves da Cunha

    (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)

  • Carlos Santos


    (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)

Using the Bai-Perron test, we look for a shift in the conditional mean of an AR representation of Spanish CPI inflation over the period: 1978-2006. It is clear that Spain, as most OECD economies, experienced an inflation slowdown in the early eithgties, which can be related to some policy measures undertook by the government coming out of the 1982 elections. It is shown, that when the break is accounted for, there are no signs of persistence in Spanish CPI inflation.

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Paper provided by Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto) in its series Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) with number 022008.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cap:wpaper:022008
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  1. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Maria Alberta Oliveira & Carlos Santos, 2010. "Looking for a change point in French monetary policy in the early eighties," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 387-392.
  3. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2004. "Inflation Persistence: Facts or Artefacts?," Working Papers w200408, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
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