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Looking for a break in Spanish Inflation Data in the early eighties and assessing persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Teresa Mota

    (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)

  • Mariana Alves da Cunha

    (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)

  • Carlos Santos

    (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)

Abstract

Using the Bai-Perron test, we look for a shift in the conditional mean of an AR representation of Spanish CPI inflation over the period: 1978-2006. It is clear that Spain, as most OECD economies, experienced an inflation slowdown in the early eithgties, which can be related to some policy measures undertook by the government coming out of the 1982 elections. It is shown, that when the break is accounted for, there are no signs of persistence in Spanish CPI inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Teresa Mota & Mariana Alves da Cunha & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Looking for a break in Spanish Inflation Data in the early eighties and assessing persistence," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 022008, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    • Handle: RePEc:cap:wpaper:022008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    3. Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2004. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Working Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    4. Maria Alberta Oliveira & Carlos Santos, 2010. "Looking for a change point in French monetary policy in the early eighties," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 387-392.
    5. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; structural breaks; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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