IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2000-197.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand-Side Stabilization Policies: What is the Evidence of their Potential?

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Magda E. Kandil

Abstract

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results, on average, in a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results, on average, in an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Magda E. Kandil, 2000. "Demand-Side Stabilization Policies: What is the Evidence of their Potential?," IMF Working Papers 2000/197, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3908
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. RenÈ Garcia, 2002. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 102-119, January.
    2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Magda Kandil, 2002. "Asymmetry in the Effects of Monetary and Government Spending Shocks: Contrasting Evidence and Implications," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 288-313, April.
    5. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
    6. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 52, European Central Bank.
    10. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    11. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
    12. Ramey, Valerie A & SHAPIRO, MATTHEW D, 1998. "Displaced Capital," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt49k7n14z, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    14. Mahadeva,Lavan & Sinclair,Peter (ed.), 2002. "Monetary Transmission in Diverse Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521813464.
    15. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    16. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    17. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    18. Magda Kandil, 1999. "The asymmetric stabilizing effects of price flexibility: historical evidence and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 825-839.
    19. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    20. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-278, May.
    21. Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February.
    22. Kandil, Magda, 1998. "Supply-Side Asymmetry and the Non-Neutrality of Demand Fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 785-809, October.
    23. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    24. Magda Kandil, 2002. "Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations In The Us Economy: The Pre-War And The 1946-1991 Periods Compared," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 21-42.
    25. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
    26. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Generalized Chow Tests for Structural Change: A Coordinate-Free Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 565-575, October.
    27. Jackman, Richard & Sutton, John, 1982. "Imperfect Capital Markets and the Monetarist Black Box: Liquidity Constraints, Inflation and the Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 108-128, March.
    28. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
    29. Kandil, Magda, 2001. "Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-165.
    30. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
    31. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    32. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    33. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security: A Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 331-336, April.
    34. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1982. "Inflation and Government Deficits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 315-329, July.
    35. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    36. Senda, Takashi, 2001. "Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks and Trend Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 65-89, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Joshua E. Greene & Ms. Magda E. Kandil, 2002. "The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U. S. Balance of Payments," IMF Working Papers 2002/045, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 420-439, June.
    3. Magda Kandil, 2011. "Financial flows to developing and advanced countries: determinants and implications," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 60-91, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kandil, Magda, 2017. "Crowding out or crowding in? Correlations of spending components within and across countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1254-1273.
    2. Kandil, Magda, 2007. "The wage-price spiral: International evidence and implications," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 212-240.
    3. Magda Kandil, 2016. "On the relationship between public and private spending in developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 165-191, March.
    4. Magda Kandil, 2019. "External Cyclicality in the Face of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Pros and Cons Across Developed and Developing Countries," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(1), February.
    5. Kandil, Magda, 2001. "Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-165.
    6. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Public Spending and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 8(2), pages 133-158, August.
    7. Magda Kandil, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of demand shocks: international evidence on determinants and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2127-2145.
    8. Kandil, Magda, 1998. "Supply-Side Asymmetry and the Non-Neutrality of Demand Fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 785-809, October.
    9. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    10. Kandil, Magda, 2006. "Variation in the effects of government spending shocks with methods of financing: Evidence from the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-486.
    11. Cerqueira, Vinícius Dos Santos & Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno & Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano, 2014. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suave," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    12. Magda Kandil, 2006. "Asymmetric Effects Of Aggregate Demand Shocks Across U.S. Industries: Evidence And Implications," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 259-283, Spring.
    13. Seewon Kim, 2018. "Effects of Monetary Policy during Financial Market Crises and Regime Changes: An Empirical Evaluation Using a Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 105-123, June.
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-065 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Zakir, Nadia & Malik, Wasim Shahid, 2013. "Are the effects of monetary policy on output asymmetric in Pakistan?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-9.
    16. Magda Kandil, 2002. "Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations In The Us Economy: The Pre-War And The 1946-1991 Periods Compared," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 21-42.
    17. Magda Kandil, 2005. "On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 269-304.
    18. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2017. "Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1195-1218, December.
    19. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:1:a:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    21. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    22. Zare , Roohollah, 2015. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in Iran using Markov-switching Models," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(4), pages 125-142, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.