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The Macroeconomic Effects of Nonzero Trend Inflation

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  • ROBERT AMANO
  • STEVE AMBLER
  • NOOMAN REBEI

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic effects of nonzero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under three common time-dependent pricing schemes: Calvo, truncated-Calvo, and Taylor. We show that, regardless of the pricing mechanism, trend inflation leads to a reduction in the stochastic means of output, consumption and employment, and an increase in the stochastic mean of inflation beyond its deterministic steady-state level. The variability of most aggregates also increases. These effects are quantitatively much stronger with Calvo pricing. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Amano & Steve Ambler & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Nonzero Trend Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1821-1838, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:7:p:1821-1838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
    2. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    6. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
    9. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
    10. Alexander L. Wolman, 2001. "A primer on optimal monetary policy with staggered price-setting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 27-52.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Ali Kafaie & Amir Mohammad Moshref, 2013. "Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence for Iran," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 18(1), pages 93-104, winter.
    2. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
    3. Nakata, Taisuke, 2014. "Welfare costs of shifting trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-78.
    4. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under low trend inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2568-2583, November.
    5. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dib, Ali & Mendicino, Caterina & Zhang, Yahong, 2013. "Price-level targeting rules and financial shocks: The case of Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 941-953.
    7. Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli, 2015. "Inflation Persistence, Price Indexation and Optimal Simple Interest Rate Rules," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 1-30, September.
    8. Daniel de Munnik & Kuan Xu, 2007. "Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms," Staff Working Papers 07-31, Bank of Canada.
    9. Loberto, Michele & Perricone, Chiara, 2017. "Does trend inflation make a difference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-375.
    10. repec:eee:ecolet:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:116-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Monetary policy and growth with trend inflation and financial frictions," MPRA Paper 54606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    13. Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago, 2014. "Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 33-46.
    14. Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise, 2015. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Markups in the New Keynesian Models," MPRA Paper 72478, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2016.
    15. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Optimal Policy When the Inflation Target is not Optimal," Working Papers Series 271, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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