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Inflation persistence, structural breaks and omitted variables: a critical view

  • Andrea Vaona


    (Istituto Ricerche Economiche, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Lugano, Switzerland.)

Recent empirical contributions assess time changes in inflation persistence by means of simple autoregressive models. Their reliability is discussed in the light of the econometric literature on model misspecification and it is showed that their results can be misleading due to the omission of relevant variables.

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File URL:,42,6,20080125113908-JC/wp0802.pdf
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Paper provided by USI Università della Svizzera italiana in its series Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano with number 0802.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lug:wpaper:0802
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  1. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2005. "A New Variant of RESET for Distributed Lag Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(56), pages 1-4.
  3. Kiviet, Jan F, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 241-61, April.
  4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1987. "Discriminating between Autocorrelation and Misspecification in," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 128-34, February.
  5. Gadzinski, Gregory & Orlandi, Fabrice, 2004. "Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States," Working Paper Series 0414, European Central Bank.
  6. MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-46, March.
  7. Thursby, Jerry G, 1982. "Misspecification, Heteroscedasticity, and the Chow and Goldfeld-Quandt Tests," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 314-21, May.
  8. Luca Benati, 2007. "The Time-Varying Phillips Correlation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1275-1283, 08.
  9. Siu Fai Leung & Shihti Yu, 2001. "The sensitivity of the RESET tests to disturbance autocorrelation in regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 721-726.
  10. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2006. "Empirical size and power of some diagnostic tests applied to a distributed lag model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 631-643, September.
  11. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 1990. "The Inappropriate Use of Serial Correlation Tests in Dynamic Linear Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 126-32, February.
  12. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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