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Does inflation targeting lead to excessive exchange rate volatility?

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  • Thórarinn G. Pétursson

Abstract

This paper analysis whether the adoption of inflation targeting affects excessive exchange rate volatility, i.e. the share of exchange rate fluctuations not related to economic fundamentals. Using a signal-extraction approach to estimate this excessive volatility in multivariate exchange rates in a sample of forty-four countries, the empirical results show no systematic relationship between inflation targeting and excessive exchange rate volatility. Joint analysis of the effects of inflation targeting and EMU membership shows, however, that a membership in the monetary union significantly reduces this excessive volatility. Together, the results suggest that floating exchange rates not only serve as a shock absorber but are also an independent source of shocks, and that these excessive fluctuations in exchange rates can be reduced by joining a monetary union. At the same time the results suggest that adopting inflation targeting does not by itself contribute to excessive exchange rate volatility.

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  • Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2009. "Does inflation targeting lead to excessive exchange rate volatility?," Economics wp43, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    • Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp43
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fahima Charef, 2017. "Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(1), pages 39-47, March.
    3. Tatiana Lysenko & Geoff Barnard, 2011. "Strengthening the Macroeconomic Policy Framework in South Africa," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 847, OECD Publishing.
    4. Haryo Kuncoro, 2020. "Interest Rate Policy and Exchange Rates Volatility Lessons from Indonesia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 19-42.
    5. Gylfi Zoega, 2016. "Responding to Capital Flows in a Very Small Economy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 159-170, June.

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