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Does inflation targeting lead to excessive exchange rate volatility?

Listed author(s):
  • Thórarinn G. Pétursson

This paper analysis whether the adoption of inflation targeting affects excessive exchange rate volatility, i.e. the share of exchange rate fluctuations not related to economic fundamentals. Using a signal-extraction approach to estimate this excessive volatility in multivariate exchange rates in a sample of forty-four countries, the empirical results show no systematic relationship between inflation targeting and excessive exchange rate volatility. Joint analysis of the effects of inflation targeting and EMU membership shows, however, that a membership in the monetary union significantly reduces this excessive volatility. Together, the results suggest that floating exchange rates not only serve as a shock absorber but are also an independent source of shocks, and that these excessive fluctuations in exchange rates can be reduced by joining a monetary union. At the same time the results suggest that adopting inflation targeting does not by itself contribute to excessive exchange rate volatility.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland in its series Economics with number wp43.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp43
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  3. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  4. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 660-672, November.
  5. Rich, Georg, 2000. "Monetary Policy without Central Bank Money: A Swiss Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 439-469, November.
  6. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
  7. Durlauf, Steven N. & Maccini, Louis J., 1995. "Measuring noise in inventory models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-89, August.
  8. Francis Breedon & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "Out in the cold? Iceland's trade performance outside the European Union and European Monetary Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(5), pages 723-736, September.
  9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  10. Konuki, Testuya, 1999. "Measuring noise in exchange rate models1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 255-270, August.
  11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  12. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
  13. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
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