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Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

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  • Fahima Charef

Abstract

The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen) and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential), of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH). The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Fahima Charef, 2017. "Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(1), pages 39-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:khe:scajes:v:3:y:2017:i:1:p:39-47
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    2. Ngo Thai Hung, 2021. "Volatility Behaviour of the Foreign Exchange Rate and Transmission Among Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from the EGARCH Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 36-56, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; fundamental macroeconomic variables; conditional heteroskedasticity models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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