IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2936.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Steven N. Durlauf
  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

Under rather general conditions, observed covariances place a useful lower bound on the variance of the misspecification or noise III models based on expectations. Such models are widely used for securities prices, exchange rates, consumption, and output. For a correctly specified model, the lower bound will be zero. We construct an optimal bound on model noise that captures the complete set of testable restrictions on an expectations based model. Many specification tests for asset prices are easily interpreted as estimates of this lower bound. As a result, the power of different tests may be ranked according to the information restrictions employed in constructing noise estimates. Our results show that specification tests which use the history of lagged dependent variables are usually better able to uncover model noise than based on information sets that exclude those variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven N. Durlauf & Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2936
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2936.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1985. "Protectionism and the Misaligned Dollar: The Case for Monetary Coordination," CEPR Publications 244430, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    5. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    6. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    7. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    8. David, Paul A. & Olsen, Trond E., 1984. "Anticipated Automation: A Rational Expectations Model of Technological Diffusion," CEPR Publications 244424, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & James Powell, 1986. "The Cyclical Behavior of Industrial Labor Markets: A Comparison of the Prewar and Postwar Eras," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 583-638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael J. Boskin & Marc S. Robinson & Terrance O'Reilly & Praveen Kumar, 1984. "New Estimates of the Value of Federal Mineral Rights and Land," NBER Working Papers 1447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Stock, James H., 1987. "Regression vs. volatility tests of the efficiency of foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 49-56, March.
    12. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    13. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, "undated". "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test (Revised: 29-87)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    14. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    15. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1985. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Leading Indicator for American Monetary Policy," CEPR Publications 244429, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Partha Dasgupta & Paul A. David, 1987. "Information Disclosure and the Economics of Science and Technology," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: George R. Feiwel (ed.), Arrow and the Ascent of Modern Economic Theory, chapter 16, pages 519-542, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    18. James L. Sweeney & Michael J. Boskin, 1985. "Analyzing Impacts of Potential Tax Policy Changes on U.S. Oil Security," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    19. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-373, April.
    20. Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979. "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-758, October.
    21. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Dissaving after Retirement: Testing the Pure Life Cycle Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 237-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1984. "Life Cycle Annuity Valuation," NBER Working Papers 1511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    24. David, Paul & Stoneman, Paul, 1985. "Subsidisation vs Information Provision as Instruments of Technology Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 49, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Scott, Louis O, 1985. "The Present Value Model of Stock Prices: Regression Tests and Monte Carlo Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 599-605, November.
    26. Manne, Alan S., 1984. "On the Formulation and Solution of Economic Equilibrium Models," CEPR Publications 244427, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hooker, Mark A., 2000. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 583-600, August.
    2. repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:301-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measuring noise in the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, September.
    4. Engsted, Tom, 2003. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 441-451, August.
    5. Fahmy, Yasser A. F. & Kandil, Magda, 2003. "The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 451-465.
    6. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
    7. Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Spontaneous Volatility of Output and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Qin Xiao & Gee Kwang Randolph Tan, 2007. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(4), pages 865-888, April.
    9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    10. Paul Johnson & Marcio Garcia, 2000. "A regression tree analysis of real interest rate regime changes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 171-176.
    11. Mark A. Hooker, 1997. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2009. "Does inflation targeting lead to excessive exchange rate volatility?," Economics wp43, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    13. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boskin, Michael J., 1988. "Issues in the Measurement and Interpretation of Saving and Wealth," CEPR Publications 244418, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Boskin, Michael J. & Lau, Lawrence J., 1988. "An Analysis of Postwar U.S. Consumption and Saving," CEPR Publications 244417, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Sweeney, James L. & Boskin, Michael J., 1985. "Analyzing Impacts of Potential Tax Policy Changes on U.S. Oil Security," CEPR Publications 244428, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    6. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    7. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.
    8. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    9. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    10. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- Vs. General-Equilibrium Models of the International Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 4446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    12. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    13. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Manne, Alan S., 1984. "On the Formulation and Solution of Economic Equilibrium Models," CEPR Publications 244427, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Gilbert Colletaz & Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1990. "Coïntégration et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712.
    16. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    19. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047, July.
    20. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. Levine, Ross, 1989. "An International Arbitrage Pricing Model with PPP Deviations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(4), pages 587-599, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.