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Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins

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  • Juliana Araujo

    () (International Monetary Fund)

  • Povilas Lastauskas

    () (Bank of Lithuania)

  • Chris Papageorgiou

    () (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Motivated by the rise in capital flows to low-income countries (LICs), we examine the nature of these flows and the factors affecting foreign investors' decision. Recognizing the presence of fixed investment costs, we analyze capital flows at both intensive and extensive margins. To fix ideas, we resort to the gravity literature for the estimating relationships which we embed into a two-tier econometric framework with cross-sectional dependence. Our main finding is that market entry costs are statistically and economically very detrimental to LICs. We also obtain the gravity-type relationship for the destination income unconditionally but not after conditioning on relevant variables, as well as establish labor productivity as a robust attractor of capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2016. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 37, Bank of Lithuania.
  • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:37
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    Keywords

    Bilateral capital flows; foreign direct investment; portfolio flows; low-income countries; extensive and intensive margins; cross-sectional dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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