Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill
How to evaluate a fund manager’s skill is a central question in empirical finance. Prior literature has defined skill as an ability to either pick stocks or time the market, at all times. We propose a new definition of skill as a general cognitive ability used in different ways at different times. We find evidence for stock picking in booms and for market timing in recessions. Moreover, the same fund managers that pick stocks well in expansions also time the market well in recessions. These fund managers significantly outperform other funds and passive benchmarks. Our results suggest a new metric of managerial ability that can be constructed in real time and can predict fund performance. The metric gives more weight to a fund’s market timing in recessions and to a fund’s stock picking in booms, and it displays far more persistence than either market timing or stock picking alone.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Amit Seru, 2007. "Fund Manager Use of Public Information: New Evidence on Managerial Skills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-528, 04.
- Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009.
"Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance,"
NBER Working Papers
14903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Rational Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005.
"On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1983-2011, 08.
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2004. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 10770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002.
"Investing in equity mutual funds,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 351-380, March.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. " Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-61, June.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Performance Measurement without Benchmarks: An Examination of Mutual Fund Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 47-68, January.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005.
"A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods,"
2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
- Glode, Vincent, 2011. "Why mutual funds "underperform"," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 546-559, March.
- Wayne Ferson & Kenneth Khang, 2002. "Conditional Performance Measurement Using Portfolio Weights: Evidence for Pension Funds," NBER Working Papers 8790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.