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When active fund managers deviate from their peers: Implications for fund performance

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  • Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti

Abstract

This paper proposes that the extent to which mutual fund managers’ beliefs deviate from the ex ante unobservable representative beliefs of their peers contains information about their skill. A new measure based on portfolio allocations, peer deviation, is used to capture a fund manager’s divergence from the contemporaneously unobservable beliefs of her peers. The portfolio based on representative beliefs of a group of managers investing in similar assets outperforms passive benchmarks, indicating that they reflect informed beliefs. Fund managers who simultaneously arrive at portfolio selections which, in hindsight, are close to those implied by representative beliefs possess ex ante more skill and exhibit future outperformance. Copycat strategies replicating lagged portfolio holdings implied by representative beliefs outperform the actual portfolio holdings of funds that deviate most, but the outperformance dissipates after two quarters.

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  • Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2013. "When active fund managers deviate from their peers: Implications for fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1286-1305.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:4:p:1286-1305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.12.003
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    2. Wang, Yaping & Paek, Miyoun & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "The performance of Chinese equity funds: An extension of DGTW model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Herrmann, Ulf & Rohleder, Martin & Scholz, Hendrik, 2016. "Does style-shifting activity predict performance? Evidence from equity mutual funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 112-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual funds; Performance evaluation; Heterogeneous beliefs; Networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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