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Does style-shifting activity predict performance? Evidence from equity mutual funds

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  • Herrmann, Ulf
  • Rohleder, Martin
  • Scholz, Hendrik

Abstract

This study introduces an innovative approach to measuring the “style-shifting activity” (SSA) of mutual funds using daily returns. Applying our new measure to a comprehensive sample of 2631 active US equity mutual funds, we show (i) that SSA predicts future performance, especially for current outperformers, and (ii) that SSA adds new information previously not captured by alternative return-based activity measures such as tracking error or R-squared. Comparing the three measures, we show that SSA captures activity very selectively, which makes it a stable and reliable predictor of future performance. Tracking error and R-squared, however, seem to additionally capture some unobserved fund characteristics, as the direction and power of their predictions depend heavily on the consideration of time- and fund-fixed effects. Moreover, investment strategies based on past SSA and past performance earn up to 2.4% (3.6%) p.a. risk-adjusted net (gross) returns which is economically and statistically significant.

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  • Herrmann, Ulf & Rohleder, Martin & Scholz, Hendrik, 2016. "Does style-shifting activity predict performance? Evidence from equity mutual funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 112-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:112-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2015.03.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual fund performance; Equity funds; Management activity; Style-shifting; Performance prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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