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Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings

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  • Russ Wermers
  • Tong Yao
  • Jane Zhao

Abstract

We develop a stock return--predictive measure based on an efficient aggregation of the portfolio holdings of all actively managed U.S. domestic equity mutual funds, and use this model to study the source of fund managers' stock selection abilities. This "generalized inverse alpha" (GIA) approach reveals differences in the ability of managers to predict firms' future earnings from fundamental research. Notably, the GIA's return-forecasting power is not subsumed by publicly available quantitative predictors, such as momentum, value, and earnings quality, nor is it subsumed by methods shown in past research to forecast stock returns using fund holdings or trades. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Russ Wermers & Tong Yao & Jane Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3490-3529.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:25:y:2012:i:12:p:3490-3529
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhs111
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing Xie, 2024. "Stock-Picking by Mutual Funds: Evidence from Trading in Family-Controlled Firms," Working Papers 202411, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    2. Dyakov, Teodor & Verbeek, Marno, 2013. "Front-running of mutual fund fire-sales," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4931-4942.
    3. Ratanabanchuen, Roongkiat & Saengchote, Kanis, 2020. "Institutional capital allocation and equity returns: Evidence from Thai mutual funds’ holdings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Agarwal, Vikas & Mullally, Kevin & Tang, Yuehua & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "Mandatory portfolio disclosure, stock liquidity, and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 13-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Solomon, David H. & Soltes, Eugene & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 53-72.
    6. Huimin Peng, 2020. "Holding-Based Evaluation upon Actively Managed Stock Mutual Funds in China," Papers 2004.05322, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    7. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohebshahedin, Mahmood, 2020. "Transparency and fund governance efficacy: The effect of the SEC'S disclosure rule on advisory contracts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Qifei Zhu, 2020. "The Missing New Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1193-1204, March.
    9. Deborah Miori & Mihai Cucuringu, 2022. "SEC Form 13F-HR: Statistical investigation of trading imbalances and profitability analysis," Papers 2209.08825, arXiv.org.
    10. Zhe Chen & David R. Gallagher & Adrian D. Lee & Tom Smith, 2017. "Testing the effect of portfolio holdings disclosure in an environment absent of mandatory disclosure," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 113-129, March.
    11. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Matos, Pedro & Pereira, João Pedro & Pires, Pedro, 2017. "Do locals know better? A comparison of the performance of local and foreign institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 151-164.
    12. Miguel, António F. & Chen, Yihao, 2021. "Do machines beat humans? Evidence from mutual fund performance persistence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Michael Rebello & Kelsey D. Wei, 2014. "A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door: The Long‐Term Investment Value of Buy‐Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 52(3), pages 775-815, June.
    14. Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers & Tong Yao, 2015. "Uncommon Value: The Characteristics and Investment Performance of Contrarian Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2394-2414, October.
    15. Vikas Agarwal & Kevin A. Mullally & Yuehua Tang & Baozhong Yang, 2015. "Mandatory Portfolio Disclosure, Stock Liquidity, and Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2733-2776, December.
    16. Suresh Nallareddy & Maria Ogneva, 2017. "Accrual quality, skill, and the cross-section of mutual fund returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 503-542, June.
    17. Jules Van Binsbergen & Jungsuk Han & Hongxun Ruan & Ran Xing, 2024. "A Horizon‐Based Decomposition of Mutual Fund Value Added Using Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1831-1882, June.
    18. Cai, Yu & Lau, Sie Ting, 2015. "Informed trading around earnings and mutual fund alphas," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-180.
    19. Andreu, Laura & Gimeno, Ruth & Sarto, José Luis & Serrano, Miguel, 2025. "Reversal of divergent decisions: Wise or hasty decisions?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Harris, Lawrence E. & Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2015. "Juicing the dividend yield: Mutual funds and the demand for dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 433-451.
    21. Lan, Chunhua & Moneta, Fabio & Wermers, Russ, 2018. "Holding Horizon: A New Measure of Active Investment Management," CFR Working Papers 15-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2018.
    22. Pi‐Hsia Hung & Donald Lien & Yun‐Ju Chien, 2020. "Portfolio concentration and fund manager performance," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 423-451, July.
    23. Eliezer Fich & Viktoriya Lantushenko & Clemens Sialm, 2019. "Institutional Trading Around M&A Announcements," NBER Working Papers 25814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Nain, Amrita & Yao, Tong, 2013. "Mutual fund skill and the performance of corporate acquirers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 437-456.
    25. Dong, Feng & Doukas, John A., 2021. "Managerial ability premium factor and fund performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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