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Trends and cycles in regional economic growth

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  • Henning, Martin
  • Enflo, Kerstin
  • Andersson, Fredrik N.G.

Abstract

Using a novel dataset of regional GDP per worker from 1860 to 2009, this paper analyzes communalities in regional long-term growth trajectories for 24 Swedish regions. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Component Analysis are used to decompose regional growth trajectories and assess the extent that regional growth patterns share common trends and cyclical properties. The study found that regional growth trends show strong common features among groups of regions in Sweden. Natural-resource-rich regions benefited from the First Industrial Revolution. Contrary to regional development in many other European economies, a growth surge in Sweden later benefited virtually the whole country during the Second Industrial Revolution. The countrywide trend of growth slowed in the 1970s when the metropolitan regions became the main growth engines. In mid- and short-term cyclical movements, regions display more heterogeneous growth patterns, and we find evidence of mid-term, sequential lead–lag patterns in regional growth, especially between urban cores and the periphery.

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  • Henning, Martin & Enflo, Kerstin & Andersson, Fredrik N.G., 2011. "Trends and cycles in regional economic growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 538-555.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:48:y:2011:i:4:p:538-555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2011.07.001
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    2. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
    3. José Aguilar-Retureta, 2015. "Regional income distribution in Mexico: new long-term evidence, 1895-2010," UB Economics Working Papers 2015/323, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB School of Economics.
    4. Mickaël Benaim & Faustine Perrin, 2017. "Regional Patterns of Economic Development. A Typology of French Departments during the Industrialization," Working Papers 04-17, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Marc Badia-Miró, 2015. "The evolution of the location of economic activity in Chile in the long run: a paradox of extreme concentration in absence of agglomeration economies," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 42(2 Year 20), pages 143-167, December.
    6. Usman Khalid, 2016. "Catch-up in Institutional Quality: An Empirical Assessment," Discussion Papers 2016-04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    7. Kerstin Enflo & Joan Ramón Rosés, 2015. "Coping with regional inequality in Sweden: structural change, migrations, and policy, 1860–2000," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(1), pages 191-217, February.
    8. Thor Berger & Carl Benedikt Frey, 2016. "Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    9. Emanuele Felice, 2017. "The Roots of a Dual Equilibrium: GDP, Productivity and Structural Change in the Italian Regions in the Long-run (1871-2011)," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 40, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Faustine Perrin, 2020. "On the Origins of the Demographic Transition. Rethinking the European Marriage Pattern," Working Papers 0202, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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