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La stima e l’interpretazione dei divari regionali nel lungo periodo: i risultati principali e alcune tracce di ricerca
[On the reconstruction and interpretation of regional inequality in Italy in the long-run: main results and future lines of research]

Listed author(s):
  • Felice, Emanuele

[English] The essay outlines the main achievements in the estimation of the GDP of the Italian regions in the long term, and the resulting interpretation of the pattern of regional inequality. The latest estimates of regional GDP, for ten-year intervals from 1871 to 1951, at historical and present boundaries, are here presented and discussed; new possible lines of research, which would improve the reliability of some figures proposed, are also sketched out. In terms of interpretation, the available estimates allow us to test cross-sectional models of conditional convergence, which suggest the presence of negative fixed effects slowing down the growth rate of the southern regions. Rather than to geographical factors or the market size, these fixed effects appear to be due to different socio-institutional conditions, that historically would have determined the levels of human capital, social capital, as well as the outcomes of development and infrastructural policies. In the future the analytical and the interpretative paths should continue to proceed interwoven: the achievement of reliable GDP estimates at the provincial level, fort both the liberal age and the interwar years, would allow to qualify and possibly expand the interpretative framework. [Italian] Il saggio analizza i principali risultati nella ricostruzione del Pil delle regioni italiane e dà conto dell’interpretazione sull’andamento dei divari che ne risulta. Le più aggiornate stime del Pil regionale, per intervalli decennali dal 1871 al 1951, ai confini storici e attuali, vengono presentate e discusse, e nuove possibili linee di ricerca, che permetterebbero di migliorare ulteriormente l’attendibilità di alcuni dati proposti, sono brevemente illustrate. Sul versante dell’interpretazione, le stime disponibili consentono di testare modelli di convergenza condizionale, con dati sezionali, che indicano la presenza di effetti fissi negativi sulla crescita delle regioni meridionali. Più che a fattori geografici o di mercato, gli effetti fissi sembrano riconducibili a una difformità di condizioni socio-istituzionali, la quale storicamente ha influenzato i diversi livelli di capitale umano, di capitale sociale, come pure gli esiti delle politiche di sviluppo e infrastrutturali. Il percorso analitico e quello interpretativo dovrebbero continuare a procedere di pari passo, anche in futuro: la realizzazione di stime storiche relativamente attendibili del Pil provinciale, per l’età liberale e per gli anni fra le due guerre, potrà consentire di verificare in maniera più approfondita, ed eventualmente di perfezionare, il modello interpretativo proposto.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66310/1/MPRA_paper_66310.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 66310.

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Date of creation: 27 Aug 2015
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66310
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  9. Felice Emanuele, 2005. "Il valore aggiunto regionale. Una stima per il 1891 e per il 1911 e alcune elaborazioni di lungo periodo (1891-1971)," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 273-314.
  10. Eckaus, Richard S., 1961. "The North-South Differential In Italian Economic Development," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 285-317, September.
  11. Ciccarelli Carlo & Fenoaltea Stefano, 2008. "Construction in Italy's Regions, 1861-1913," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 303-340.
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