IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v465y2017icp358-362.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of trade influence on economic growth rate by computational intelligence approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sokolov-Mladenović, Svetlana
  • Milovančević, Milos
  • Mladenović, Igor

Abstract

In this study was analyzed the influence of trade parameters on the economic growth forecasting accuracy. Computational intelligence method was used for the analyzing since the method can handle highly nonlinear data. It is known that the economic growth could be modeled based on the different trade parameters. In this study five input parameters were considered. These input parameters were: trade in services, exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services, trade and merchandise trade. All these parameters were calculated as added percentages in gross domestic product (GDP). The main goal was to select which parameters are the most impactful on the economic growth percentage. GDP was used as economic growth indicator. Results show that the imports of goods and services has the highest influence on the economic growth forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sokolov-Mladenović, Svetlana & Milovančević, Milos & Mladenović, Igor, 2017. "Evaluation of trade influence on economic growth rate by computational intelligence approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 358-362.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:465:y:2017:i:c:p:358-362
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.08.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116305489
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.08.031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January.
    2. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
    3. Feng, Lihua & Zhang, Jianzhen, 2014. "Application of artificial neural networks in tendency forecasting of economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 76-80.
    4. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
    5. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    6. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2009. "How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 376-388, December.
    7. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    8. Modis, Theodore, 2013. "Long-term GDP forecasts and the prospects for growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1557-1562.
    9. Modis, Theodore, 2013. "Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth," OSF Preprints aqcht, Center for Open Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ikram, M. & Sroufe, Robert & Rehman, E. & Shah, S.Z.A. & Mahmoudi, A., 2020. "Do Quality, Environmental, and Social (QES) Certifications Improve International Trade? A Comparative Grey Relation Analysis of Developing vs. Developed Countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    2. Moaniba, Igam M. & Su, Hsin-Ning & Lee, Pei-Chun, 2019. "On the drivers of innovation: Does the co-evolution of technological diversification and international collaboration matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maksimović, Goran & Jović, Srđan & Jovanović, Radomir, 2017. "Economic growth rate management by soft computing approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 520-524.
    2. Milačić, Ljubiša & Jović, Srđan & Vujović, Tanja & Miljković, Jovica, 2017. "Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 285-288.
    3. Petra Karanikić & Igor Mladenović & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović & Meysam Alizamir, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Prediction of economic growth by extreme learning approach based on science and technology transfer," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1395-1401, May.
    4. Kordanuli, Bojana & Barjaktarović, Lidija & Jeremić, Ljiljana & Alizamir, Meysam, 2017. "Appraisal of artificial neural network for forecasting of economic parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 515-519.
    5. Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analyzing of innovations influence on economic growth by fuzzy system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1297-1304, May.
    6. Marković, Dušan & Petković, Dalibor & Nikolić, Vlastimir & Milovančević, Miloš & Petković, Biljana, 2017. "Soft computing prediction of economic growth based in science and technology factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 217-220.
    7. Dušan Marković & Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Estimation of the most influential science and technology factors for economic growth forecasting by soft computing technique," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1133-1146, May.
    8. Đokić, Aleksandar & Jović, Srđan, 2017. "Evaluation of agriculture and industry effect on economic health by ANFIS approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 396-399.
    9. Maksimović, Goran & Milosavljević, Valentina & Ćirković, Bratislav & Milošević, Božidar & Jović, Srđan & Alizamir, Meysam, 2017. "Analyzing of economic growth based on electricity consumption from different sources," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 37-40.
    10. Schlembach, Christoph & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Wunderlich, Linus, 2022. "Forecasting the Olympic medal distribution – A socioeconomic machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Feng, Lin, 2024. "Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: New evidence from GDP forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    12. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
    13. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 18-40, November.
    14. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2024. "Conservatism and information rigidity of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's growth forecast: Quarter‐century assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1399-1421, August.
    15. Sinem Kilic Celik & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards and Policies," CAMA Working Papers 2023-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Su, Yu-Shan & Huang, Hsini & Daim, Tugrul & Chien, Pan-Wei & Peng, Ru-Ling & Karaman Akgul, Arzu, 2023. "Assessing the technological trajectory of 5G-V2X autonomous driving inventions: Use of patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Jović, Srđan & Maksimović, Goran & Jovović, David, 2016. "Appraisal of natural resources rents and economic development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 289-291.
    18. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
    19. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2021. "Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:465:y:2017:i:c:p:358-362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.