IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/1498.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's direct investment in Indo-Pacific: A quantitative assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Bajo-Rubio, Oscar
  • Zhou, Jing

Abstract

We provide in this chapter a quantitative assessment of the global effects, i.e., the effects on the countries concerned, as well as on mainland China, the European Union, the United States and the rest of the world, following an increase of Chinese direct investment in the Indo-Pacific region. The empirical methodology makes use of a Computable General Equilibrium model, which allows obtaining the consequences of changes in a particular variable on the whole economy under analysis, together with the specific effects across the different productive sectors. The results show that an increase in Chinese direct investment would have a mostly positive and significant effect on the GDP levels of the Indo-Pacific countries, especially in Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and India; and, to a lower extent, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand. These results were mostly driven by increases in consumption, since investment fell in almost all cases. The effects on the other world regions proved to be very small.

Suggested Citation

  • Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Zhou, Jing, 2024. "China's direct investment in Indo-Pacific: A quantitative assessment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1498, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/303155/1/GLO-DP-1498.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burfisher,Mary E., 2021. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108748025, January.
    2. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2014. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 77-88.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2021. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1225-1240.
    5. repec:cdl:ciders:qt0sx02651 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Burfisher,Mary E., 2021. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108490085, January.
    8. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    10. María C. Latorre, 2009. "The economic analysis of multinationals and foreign direct investment: a review," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 191(4), pages 97-126, December.
    11. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Gómez-Plana, Antonio G., 2025. "Austerity and asymmetries in the fiscal policies of the eurozone," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1592, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Antonio G. Gómez-Plana, 2025. "Austerity and asymmetries in the fiscal policies of the Eurozone: the case of Southern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Tscheke, Jan, 2016. "Operational Hedging of Exchange Rate Risks," Discussion Papers in Economics 30227, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Castillo-Murciego, Ángela & López-Laborda, Julio, 2019. "The effect of double taxation treaties and territorial tax systems on foreign direct investment: Evidence for Spain," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-33.
    5. Kuang-Hann Chou & Chien-Hsun Chen & Chao-Cheng Mai, 2015. "Factors Influencing China's Exports with a Spatial Econometric Model," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 191-211, August.
    6. Maureen Lankhuizen & Henri L. F. de Groot & Gert‐Jan M. Linders, 2011. "The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1395-1416, August.
    7. Zhou, Jing, 2023. "A double-edged sword: Chinese direct investment in Latin America," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 234-249.
    8. Juliana D. Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2017. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1517-1554, October.
    9. Valeriano Martínez-San Román & Marta Bengoa & Blanca Sánchez-Robles, 2016. "Foreign direct investment, trade integration and the home bias: evidence from the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 197-229, February.
    10. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Herwartz, H. & Xu, F., 2010. "A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-54, February.
    12. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    13. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    14. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2019. "Saving and investment causality: implications for financial integration in transition countries of Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-416, April.
    15. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
    16. Fetzer, James J. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2005. "Modeling Modifications in Rules of Origin: A Partial Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 331372, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
    18. Hamano, Masashige, 2013. "The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 26-46.
    19. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:39:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.