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Self-confirming Inflation Persistence

Listed author(s):
  • Rhys Bidder
  • Kalin Nikolov
  • Tony Yates

In this paper we simulate a central bank subject to the misperception that prices are indexed to past inflation in periods when firms are unable to re-optimise. It thinks, in other words, that inflation is intrinsically persistent. The central bank sets monetary policy optimally subject to this belief. The central bank updates its beliefs about in¬dexation using a constant gain learning scheme. The data generated by such policy lead to beliefs about inflation persistence being effectively self-confirming in a wide variety of setttings. These results offer a tentative answer to why it appears that inflation is persistent at some times and in some countries, and at others not. The answer is that policymakers sometimes believe inflation to be persistent, and sometimes do not.

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File URL: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/CDMA/papers/cp0908.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0908.

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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0908
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Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL

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  1. Ellison, Martin & Yates, Tony, 2007. "Escaping Nash and Volatile Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Smets, Frank & Vestin, David & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2006. "Adaptive learning, persistence, and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 644, European Central Bank.
  3. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-228, September.
  5. Martin Ellison & Tony Yates, 2007. "Escaping Volatile Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 981-993, 06.
  6. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 376-385, 04-05.
  7. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  8. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
  9. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
  10. Robert D. Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2005. "Inflation Persistence And Flexible Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 245-261, 02.
  11. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
  12. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2003. "Parameterized Expectations Algorithm and the Moving Bounds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 88-92, January.
  13. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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