IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-04-81.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Instrument during the Inflation Targeting Period in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

    (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa)

Abstract

Since the adoption of inflation rate targeting policy, there has been a great concern on the effectiveness of the monetary policy instrument to curb inflation in South Africa. The effectiveness of monetary policy instruments to control the level of inflation has been widely criticised not only in the South African context but also internationally. This paper assesses how inflation react to monetary policy shocks in South Africa during the inflation targeting period by making use of the structural vector error correction model (SVECM). The results of the impulse response function obtained from the SVECM show that, on average, contractionary monetary policy that intends to curb inflationary pressure has been impotent in South Africa. However, the contractionary monetary policy shocks managed to reduce output. The paper suggests that it is time a dual target, inflation and output, be considered in South Africa to avoid the harm caused on output growth from monetary policy actions related to the constraint of inflation targeting

Suggested Citation

  • Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2017. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Instrument during the Inflation Targeting Period in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 706-713.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-04-81
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/4535/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4535/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. R Gupta & K Komen, 2009. "Time Aggregation and the Contradictions with Causal Relationships: Can Economic Theory Come to the Rescue?," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 16-27, April.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 25-47.
    4. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    5. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2003. "Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    6. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Alain Kabundi, 2011. "Monetary Policy Action and Inflation in South Africa: An Empirical Analysis," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 25-37.
    8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    9. Alfred K. Mukong, 2016. "Peer Networks and Tobacco Consumption in South Africa," Working Papers 84, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    10. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    11. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    13. Robert H. Rasche & Marcela M. Williams, 2007. "The effectiveness of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Sep), pages 447-490.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-684, November.
    15. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Manfred J. M. Neumann & Jurgen Von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 127-148.
    18. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    19. Francisco De A. Nadal‐De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Targeters In Practice: A Lucky Lot?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(3), pages 239-253, July.
    20. David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, November.
    21. Markus Hyvonen, 2004. "Inflation Convergence Across Countries," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    23. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, July.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    25. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 51-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Okotori, Tonprebofa & Gbalam, Eze, 2020. "CBN monetary policy and inflation nexus in Nigeria: an empirical approach," MPRA Paper 110523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hamzah, Nurrawaida Husna & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Revisiting effectiveness of interest rate as a tool to control inflation: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and NARDL," MPRA Paper 87576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Monica Laura Zlati & Romeo Victor Ionescu & Valentin Marian Antohi & Veronica Grosu, 2022. "Growth and integration's impact under a new dynamic approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 7057-7092, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Kabundi, Alain, 2015. "Monetary Policy Instrument and Inflation in South Africa: Structural Vector Error Correction Model Approach," MPRA Paper 63731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Sep), pages 431-450.
    3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    5. Csermely, Ágnes, 2006. "Az inflációs cél követésének rendszere Magyarországon [The system for targeting inflation goals in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1058-1079.
    6. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    7. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    8. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Metin Ozdemir & Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "Is price stability enough? Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in developing countries," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 352-372.
    11. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    12. Arestis, Philip & Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Moschos, Demetrios, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation convergence: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 285-295.
    13. Alan S. Blinder, 2008. "Talking about Monetary Policy: The Virtues (and Vices?) of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 1048, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. Moretti, Laura, 2014. "Inflation targeting and product market deregulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 372-386.
    15. Tachibana, Minoru, 2013. "How have inflation-targeting central banks responded to supply shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 1-3.
    16. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 1, pages 001-022, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    18. BEN ROMDHANE, Ikram & MENSI, Sami, 2014. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting: Evidence from OECD Economies," MPRA Paper 60108, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Nov 2014.
    19. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    20. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    21. Marjan Petreski, 2009. "A Critique On Inflation Targeting," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 11-24, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting Policy; Structural Vector Error Correction Model; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-04-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.