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Have we under-estimated inflation persistence before WW1? US and international evidence

Author

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Stuart, Rebecca

Abstract

We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2025. "Have we under-estimated inflation persistence before WW1? US and international evidence," QUCEH Working Paper Series 25-05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:315743
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation persistence; gold standard; measurement errors; instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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