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The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the business cycle: Evidence from the panel smoothed quantile regression model

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  • Hang, Yin
  • Xue, Wenjun

Abstract

This paper uses a panel smoothed quantile regression model to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the business cycle by using data for 40 countries from 2005 to 2016. The empirical results show that monetary policy is pro-cyclical and amplifies the business cycle. The positive effects of monetary policy are larger in the emerging countries and are larger during economic expansions than recessions. The findings are robust to alternative panel quantile regression methods. This paper contributes to the exploration of distinct roles of monetary policy can play in the different phases of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Hang, Yin & Xue, Wenjun, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the business cycle: Evidence from the panel smoothed quantile regression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520302792
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109450
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. RenÈ Garcia, 2002. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 102-119, January.
    2. Galvao, Antonio F. & Kato, Kengo, 2016. "Smoothed quantile regression for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 92-112.
    3. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    4. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
    5. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    6. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Timothy Sablik, 2017. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue March.
    7. Kato, Kengo & F. Galvao, Antonio & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel V., 2012. "Asymptotics for panel quantile regression models with individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 76-91.
    8. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shodipe Oladimeji T. & Shobande Olatunji Abdul, 2021. "Monetary Policy Dynamics in the United States," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 14-30, January.

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